formula for OE'd items worth!

so I've pondored the actual way to formulate an over enchanted items worth for a while and i found some information and added in some of my own experience with the subject and come up with this...

I had learned somewhere that after +3 your chances of success at enchanting go down 1/3rd successively each time you try to oe... so +4 would be 66% and so on. I think thats pretty close but i imagine that +4 is a little higher then 66%.. so i rounded it up to 70% and made this little chart for success rates for OEing..

+4 - 70%
+5 - 46.66%
+6 - 31.11%
+7 - 20.74%
+8 - 13.83%
+9 - 9.22%
+10 - 6.14%
+11 - 4.11%
+12 - 2.7%
+13 - 1.8%
+14 - 1.2%
+15 - .81%
+16 - .54%

Now to figure in the items worth using this chart... well you would simply multiply your weapons worth by the difference of success for each oe... so for instance say i had a +4 emi bow. Its base value is around 12 mill on my server you oe it to +4 so you do 12 mill * .3(the difference from 100% success of the +4) and you get 3.6 mill add that to the weapons value + the cost of the scrolls and your bow is worth 18.6 mill assuming you paid 12 for the bow 750k per enchant scroll and added in the 3.6 mill for the difference.

Now lets say you OE'd a lance to +6. On my server a plain lance is around 28 mill so you would take that then add the .3 difference(8.4 mill) then again at the +5 which is .533(14.9 mill) and again at +6 which is .689(19.3 mill) and add the scrolls value 750k * 6=4.5 mill so a +6 lance is worth 75.1 mill with this formula.

Now for something a bit trickier... I have a +11 BoP on sieghardt.. so figuring that i would take the difference in success all the way to +11 and add the EWB scrolls value (8.25 mill) and assuming a plain bop is worth 35 mill I would come up with a value of around 252.335 mill for it and that is not counting the QR SA(which would be like an aditional 3 mill about) So I hope this can help people determine their OE'd weapons and armors values better now.

No reason to even ponder this. For B grade and above its based entirely on demand for that type of item.

For D and C Grade its based on the most popular variant of that item with the same crystal value (since you can just blacksmith it to the most popular weapon type).

Its worth what people will pay for it or crushed crystal value. Whichever is higher.

A nice idea, but wrong. It's more complicated than that.

2/3 successful enchant. 1/3 half-NPC-value in crystals, not nothing.

It is known and confirmed that the enchant chance is 2/3.. 66.6% if you want so. Also your formula is off the real values, because you do not consider the crystals you get on a failed attempt.

value_of_item^3 + enchant = 0.66*value_of_item^4 + 0.33*crystal_value_onfailure

And with some simple math you can transform this formula to figure out the value of an item^4... however its rather nothing you'd do on paper as you'd need to iterate it up to the enchant level you want. For a script that does that, check:

http://web2.249088.vserver.de/l2_calc/enchant.php

A nice idea, but wrong. It's more complicated than that.

2/3 successful enchant. 1/3 half-NPC-value in crystals, not nothing.

Actually half-npc-value wouldn't be exact as well, every enchant adds to the crystals you get.

The way I would price OE'd items is based on Patak and Matak. A B/C/D grade weapon OE'd up to the next level is worth the closest weapon in patak. A small increase in value for the OE'ing, and you have to factor in what kind of weapon it is or can become (like an acumen weapon or what not)

according to that site u posted the link to my +11 BoP is worth 781,830,504 [B 3019] I dont see anyone paying tha tfor it... what i posted was not something figuring in if it fails its worth this much... just an idea to figure somethings sell value at a particular OE level... and i think my math seems to be a bit more along the lines of what someone will pay. However if anyone in sieghardt wants to pay me 781.8 mill for my bow PM me ill gladly give it up

Nice script.
I've found it's easier to just pop (base item value)*1.37^(# overenchants) in the calculator to predict market price, but maybe I'm just lazy.

Actually half-npc-value wouldn't be exact as well, every enchant adds to the crystals you get.

Yes it would. Scrolls have an NPC value, and you add that in.

bakkar your formula says my BoP is worth 1,116,849,000... lol again if anyone wants to pay that let me know

bakkar your formula says my BoP is worth 1,116,849,000... lol again if anyone wants to pay that let me know

And which price does your own formula give? If i say BoP = 35m.. that would make 851m for Bop+11... not counting enchants, but not that it would matter.

oh edit: actually you wrote about... 35.000.000 / 0.0411 = 851.6m for me..

edit2: to be really exact -.-

Actually half-npc-value wouldn't be exact as well, every enchant adds to the crystals you get.

Yes it would. Scrolls have an NPC value, and you add that in.



The NPC value for an item+4 or +10 is the same, and the crystals from an overenchanted +4 weapon isn't twice as much as from a oe broken +4.

bakkar your formula says my BoP is worth 1,116,849,000... lol again if anyone wants to pay that let me know

What values did you use? I get something totally different, I don't think you're calculating it right ;)

Oh, and what would you sell that bow for?

The NPC value for an item+4 or +10 is the same, and the crystals from an overenchanted +4 weapon isn't twice as much as from a oe broken +4.

I'll have to double-check when I get home. As I recall, neither of those statements were true, but it's been a while.

Where did my post go? :mad: I was the first one to respond on this topic and now its gone O.o

He double-posted it to another forum (http://boards.lineage2.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=515584), you replied there.

Just gotta say that ****, you got expensive scrolls. What are the castle lords doing??

Ooooohhhh /feelstupid ^.^

Now for something a bit trickier... I have a +11 BoP on sieghardt.. so figuring that i would take the difference in success all the way to +11 and add the EWB scrolls value (8.25 mill) and assuming a plain bop is worth 35 mill I would come up with a value of around 252.335 mill for it and that is not counting the QR SA(which would be like an aditional 3 mill about)

Thats how much my formula says my OE'd BoP is worth

Even though you were quoting and replying to yourself (way to go!), I'm going to respond to this, since you probably meant to be replying to either Freakazoid or me:

Thats how much my formula says my OE'd BoP is worth

No it isn't!
You don't know how to follow your own chart. :eek:

In millions...
(35+8.25)/0.0411=1052.3
In other words, over 1 billion, not 252M.

Which happens to be very close to the number I quoted. You know, the number you were laughing at? Yeah, if you did your math right, you would have had the same number.

:)

(And if it seems like I'm being overly direct, it's on purpose. Freakazoid already pointed out your mistake 5 hours ago and you didn't get the point, so I'm hammering it in for you this time.)

no you think i wouldnt understand how to do the math of my own chart?... I'm doing it correctly and you are not.... Not sure what your adding in.. i explained how i did it in my original post.. I dont add in any crystal values or anything like that... just the % difference for each enchant to the weapons base value ading them all together and adding the scrolls cost giving me the number i got.

lol this is retarted this is a cost chart not a price chart if im going to oe some thing im tacking on much more then this becouse stupid people pay it your just figgureing cost and in a rwaly bad way so enjoy the charty and if people wanan use that chart il be in town with 20+11 bop's at that price

no you think i wouldnt understand how to do the math of my own chart?... I'm doing it correctly and you are not.... Not sure what your adding in.. i explained how i did it in my original post.. I dont add in any crystal values or anything like that... just the % difference for each enchant to the weapons base value ading them all together and adding the scrolls cost giving me the number i got.

We're trying to explain why you're wrong, but you need to come off your "haha everyone who gets a different answer from me is stupid" attitude long enough to realize you're making a fool of yourself. A really big fool, getting bigger each time you ignore people trying to correct you to assert that "the sky is more certainly not blue". :)

Here's where my number came from, using your chart correctly:
([cost of base item] + [cost of enchantments]) / (chance of success) = (adjusted value)
([35] + [8.25]) / (0.0411) = (1052.3)
...no adding in anything, no made-up numbers, just using the chart correctly.

I did read the "method" in your original post. That's why I'm calling BS on the results, they're obviously wrong to anyone who understands iterative probability.

I'll go back to your original post to get some examples of your mistake:

Now lets say you OE'd a lance to +6. On my server a plain lance is around 28 mill so you would take that then add the .3 difference(8.4 mill) then again at the +5 which is .533(14.9 mill) and again at +6 which is .689(19.3 mill) and add the scrolls value 750k * 6=4.5 mill so a +6 lance is worth 75.1 mill with this formula.

What you appear to be doing is basically:
(base) = 28
(+4 value) = (base) + (base)*(1-[odds of reaching +4]) = 28 + 28*0.3 = 36.4
(+5 value) = (+4 value) + (base)*(1-[odds of reaching +5]) = 36.4 + 28*0.533 = 51.324
(+6 value) = (+5 value) + (base)*(1-[odds of reaching +6]) = 51.324 + 28*.689 = 70.616
(final value) = (+6 value) + (value of scrolls) = 70.616 + 4.5 = 75.116

Which is horribly wrong for multiple reasons...here are two big ones: It neglects that enchant scrolls are part of the risk value, not merely an expense of the process that you add in as the last step. Much more importantly, it takes an iterative process and applies the final probability for reaching that step as an additive modifier applied to the base value for each step of the process, which is so wrong that I honestly don't think you have a clue what you're doing.

My best friend, a math professor, would say that was like watching a train wreck. Most readers are probably wondering what the -_- I just said, suffice it to say that Adrenalizer is really really wrong--enough so that he probably shouldn't try it again.

Incidentally, the way you should use that chart is:
(28+4.5)/0.3111 = 104.47
...which still isn't right, because your chart ignores some major factors. It should be using 2/3 instead of 7/10, and it should be subtracting half the risk-weighted crystal value of the item, but that's already been explained to you in my first post.

In short: you don't understand the math of your chart, you weren't doing it right and I was, and even if you did the math right your chart still wouldn't give accurate values.

If you like, I could explain how to iterate values using something a little more intuitive, and then maybe you'll see why your method is so horribly wrong. Just let me know, I don't mind.

hehe i like that earlier post that said "the overenchanted weapon is simply worth whatever the heck people will pay for it." so true...no exact forumula...

In general, me and my friends tend to sell overenchanted weapons on gustin for about 5million per enchant from +4 to +6 and after u get to +7 to +10 they add about 10mill and over +10 they add 15mill per enchant.

we had a BOP +8
+0 sells for about 40m
8 EW( B ) scrolls cost us about 8mill to keep math simple.
+4-+6 we added 15mill for the 3 risks
+6-+8 we added 20mill for the 2 risks

total was about 83 million adena.

The same p.atk as a +4 Carnage bow which just so happens to cost 60 mill +0 (and about 73mill +3, and about 83mill +4) using the same math.

funny how that works out that way!

-i tell most people to look at the price of the equivalent A-grade weapon of closest attack and go from there. The old arguement will always waver between the guys that say pay me more because"it glows so bright" or "u can use it with your lower lvl character to lvl faster" and the other side that argues I'm not paying more because "i can buy A-grade for that price which does more damage with Soulshots and uses less of them." I think they balance out...but it all depends on the buyer!

In the end of the day, find me on GUSTIN and I will surely sell you some OE weapons at a "fair" price. (...unless your name is obviously a money-bag ebayer name like HappyQuifang555 and i know u have more money than Hashlord!)

i tell most people to look at the price of the equivalent A-grade weapon of closest attack and go from there.

The price of items in this game is exceptionally well-balanced with the current market. An item overenchanted to a specific value is often the same price as the equivalent higher-grade unenchanted item, without even trying.

So basically, even though it's worth "whatever someone will pay for it", people often will unintentionally pay the amount a good formula will predict.
(example: a +10 Homu, (6.6+10*.5)*1.36^7 is around 100M...and how much is a nice A-grade weapon again?)

aslo the closest to a correwct formula of what people wil buy at is for a +4 wep +3Price + (30% of +3Price) = +4Price any where between 40 to 20% is what yo ucan get normaly you hry some good proffit useing that math and you actuly sell them