So, what's the deal with the +16 weapons? It seem there are more and more of them. However the chances of successfully enchant a weapon to +16 haven't changed?
I have been wondering about it for some time, but said to myself "oh, that's probably always the same i see, just changed to mammon".
Until i saw someone having a couple of them.
It can't be the blessed scrolls, they are nice for low level OE, as getting your SA on your duals without risking to be left with only a handful of crystals, but considering the cost of these scrolls, you don't save much. And they don't increase the chances of going to +16 at all, if they fail, you have to go all the way up again.
Buy Scrolls from Mammon and from market at low price > Sell High
Buy AA, Scrolls from Mammon, from market at low price > Sell High
Buy Scroll from Mammon and enchant all the way you want, by now you will have a lot of adena's to spent on weapons, crystals for the luxury shop an so on.
[Don't try this unless you are already very very rich to start with, cause although you will have some red glowing weapons, you will lose more money then you think...but ok you will belong to the select club who has +16 weapons]
Oh yes, new way of becoming rich, i wonder why people weren't using it more during C3....
You completely missed the point, i don't wonder about people getting +16 weapons, i wonder about these weapons proliferating since C4, and at the hands of low level chars as well.
I don't wonder about how to get one, but about how is it that so many people managed to get several in a fairly short time.
During C3, i knew of something like 2 or 3 +16 weapons on my server. Since C4, i have seen something like 5 time that number.
as time goes on you are bound to get more highly +ed weapons
also have to note that S grade has been released so some of those ppl that had a +16 weapon may have sold it for an S grade one
SOV is another example
acumen was added in c4 so ppl who in c3 had a +16 homu may have traded that in for a +7 or w/e sov
as ppl sell their old lower +ed weapons and the market becomes more and more flooded with them, prices will eventually drop
as the prices drop it then becomes much cheaper to go from +5-+10 or +10-+16
It doesn't matter if they are all in a row... done in 1 minute or 1 month.. or anything.. those are the chances that you'll succeed in successfully enchanting.
Doesn't matter if each enchant has a chance of 66% at each enchant.... it's besides the point... it's still the values above.
Considering the above... IF you've made it to +15 enchantment successfully. Out of everyone that may have made it to +15 as well, your chances of successfully making it to +16 out of all the people that are already at +15 as well attempting to make it to +16... is roughly 1 out of 225.
No, that doesn't mean your chance of enchanting from +0 to +16 is 1 out of 225..... so don't get your hopes up.. that's just your chance of enchanting from +15 to +16....
Considering the above... IF you've made it to +15 enchantment successfully. Out of everyone that may have made it to +15 as well, your chances of successfully making it to +16 out of all the people that are already at +15 as well attempting to make it to +16... is roughly 1 out of 225.
No, that doesn't mean your chance of enchanting from +0 to +16 is 1 out of 225..... so don't get your hopes up.. that's just your chance of enchanting from +15 to +16....
Well.... My understanding is that all overenchant attempts have a 2/3 chance of success. So, if you have a +15, and click the enchant, you have a 2/3 chance of having a +16 and a 1/3 chance of having a bunch of crystals.
I have heard that +25 weapons turn purple. Has anyone seen this? And no, I didn't say this to encourage folks to overenchant just so my dwarf can have cheap crystals... That never occurred to me.
People see this and think it's 0.09 chance to get from +19 to +20. That's not true :p.
All that chart says it's that there's a 0.09 chance to get to +20 from +3. There is still a 0.66 chance to get from 19 to 20. But who would dare do it. I have never seen or heard of a +20 yet. And seeing how some people are willing to sell their kids, wives, cars and house for a +16 I wouldn't think anyone would go for +20...
no... i'm saying the more people try... the more likely we'll see a +16 or whatever enchanted weapon.....
and i'm saying that 1 outa roughly 225 weapons that may be all +3... MAY.... be able to make it to +16.... but it could be at the start of 225... or you may skip it somewhere along the way to 250 weapons later.... your chances are **** slim... **** slim....
technically, your chances of going from +19 to +20 are still 2/3
statistically, the occurence of successfully going from +19 to +20 is 0.09%
the more you try, the more the statistics are going to be verified
No, the chance of going from +19 to +20 is the same chance of going +3 to +4.
No matter what enchant you are going for, there is always the same 70% chance (about) for it to work. What you are saying is if you have 100 weapons that are +19, only 9 of them will get to +20 which is false. Really, you will end up with around 70 of them making it +20.
I think the reason there's so many more overenchanted items, lately, is because..
An unmentionable L2 website has started tracking overenchanting, and people are using the results to their advantage(it's possible that some weapons overenchant easier than others)...
I've seen a huge increase in OE'ed weapons on Erica in the last two weeks, and figured it had something to do with that unmenntionable site(IE; people wanting to "contribute" their findings)...
technically, your chances of going from +19 to +20 are still 2/3
statistically, the occurence of successfully going from +19 to +20 is 0.09%
the more you try, the more the statistics are going to be verified
No, the chance of going from +19 to +20 is the same chance of going +3 to +4.
No matter what enchant you are going for, there is always the same 70% chance (about) for it to work. What you are saying is if you have 100 weapons that are +19, only 9 of them will get to +20 which is false. Really, you will end up with around 70 of them making it +20.
true yes..... but how many weapons would you have already gone through attempting to get to 19?
technically, your chances of going from +19 to +20 are still 2/3
statistically, the occurence of successfully going from +19 to +20 is 0.09%
the more you try, the more the statistics are going to be verified
No, the chance of going from +19 to +20 is the same chance of going +3 to +4.
No matter what enchant you are going for, there is always the same 70% chance (about) for it to work. What you are saying is if you have 100 weapons that are +19, only 9 of them will get to +20 which is false. Really, you will end up with around 70 of them making it +20.
true yes..... but how many weapons would you have already gone through attempting to get to 19?
but that isnt +19 to +20. That is +3 to +20. Big difference there. The person is talking about +19 to +20 being .09% which is incorrect.
actually ombre, if you raid long and hard enough, eventually you will come accross some blessed scrolls.
the downside is, although they were free you wont get as many as regular scroll drops. but every little bit helps like that.
im looking into getting a +16 homu with acumen (i will do +19 if i ever get that many scrolls) using only raiding for blessed scrolls. i wont pay a dime to get them from players.
blessed scrolls do nothing to have better chances to go to +16. The only advantage of them is that if you fail your enchant, your weapon return to +0 enchantment and is not crushed.
btw, after a given level of enchantement, using blessed scrolls is a mistake, as the cost of crystals obtained from a failed enchantment is more than the price of your base weapon.
blessed scrolls do nothing to have better chances to go to +16. The only advantage of them is that if you fail your enchant, your weapon return to +0 enchantment and is not crushed.
btw, after a given level of enchantement, using blessed scrolls is a mistake, as the cost of crystals obtained from a failed enchantment is more than the price of your base weapon.
that much i understand, but i would basically be getting the scrolls for free. there isnt a downside!
blessed scrolls do nothing to have better chances to go to +16. The only advantage of them is that if you fail your enchant, your weapon return to +0 enchantment and is not crushed.
btw, after a given level of enchantement, using blessed scrolls is a mistake, as the cost of crystals obtained from a failed enchantment is more than the price of your base weapon.
I wonder when that point is - each scroll does not add that many crystals to what you get back, and you get only half or so (I think) of the weapon's crystal value in crystals anyway. So maybe that's OK for C and B grade, but the usual A or S grade weapon is definitely worth FAR more than the crystal value. So I'd rather have a +0 arcana mace than the crystal value of it in S grade crystals, thank you very much :)
technically, your chances of going from +19 to +20 are still 2/3
statistically, the occurence of successfully going from +19 to +20 is 0.09%
the more you try, the more the statistics are going to be verified
No, the chance of going from +19 to +20 is the same chance of going +3 to +4.
No matter what enchant you are going for, there is always the same 70% chance (about) for it to work. What you are saying is if you have 100 weapons that are +19, only 9 of them will get to +20 which is false. Really, you will end up with around 70 of them making it +20.
true yes..... but how many weapons would you have already gone through attempting to get to 19?
but that isnt +19 to +20. That is +3 to +20. Big difference there. The person is talking about +19 to +20 being .09% which is incorrect.
lol, i'm not disagreeing with you completly.. i'm saying your chances of getting from 19 to 20 is still 66%.. technically, but in real life terms, your chances of getting from 19-20 (reguardless of the previous enchants) is so **** slim.
Oh yes, new way of becoming rich, i wonder why people weren't using it more during C3....
You completely missed the point, i don't wonder about people getting +16 weapons, i wonder about these weapons proliferating since C4, and at the hands of low level chars as well.
I don't wonder about how to get one, but about how is it that so many people managed to get several in a fairly short time.
During C3, i knew of something like 2 or 3 +16 weapons on my server. Since C4, i have seen something like 5 time that number.
Well the weapons don't just disappear (except when somebody gets really crazy like my friend on Hinde who blew up a +17 BOP). So logically time proliferates quantity.
This is total BS. Everyone in the know, KNOWS that there is a super secret OE exploit out there and NCSOFT does not care to put enough time to combat this problem, even after it has been reported to them time and time again.
I dont understand the stupidity that proliferates some game developers. Something like making mass OE weapons on a server is very unhealthy as the whole purpose of making the possibility of +16 weapons is supposed to be that they are SUPER RARE. But this isnt the case as more and more time passes by. They need to evaluate this OE system and plug the leak, so to speak, before they screw the game world to hell. Its ridiculous as it is that almost everyone carries around a OE weapon and "nomral" weapons are soo rare its stupid even thinking of seeing one, ESPECIALLY at the higher levels.
I don't agree. I think they ARE stupidly rare (+16 weapons). Yes you see a few these days, but compared to the total number of weapons out there, there are ridiculously few of them as a proportion of the total.
You just notice and remember them more cause they are so obvious and red-glowy ^^
There's no OE exploit. There is however GOOD statistical evidence on a certain unmentionable site, that different weapons enchant more successfully than others - in particular that weapons that are already commonly overenchanted on a server tend to break more than weapons that noone uses or noone overenchants.
It could just be a statistical anomaly...best to wait until we have a bigger sample size to base our hypotheses on.
And yeah, like another poster said - as time goes on you will see more and more, as people who reach +16 are very unlikely to want to go further, and those weapons will just accumulate.
Oh and at high levels not that many people use OE'ed weapons. I use a +3 top A weapon with an SA and no way in hell would I risk losing that. The weapon itself is not too much of a loss but the SA crystals are so expensive/hard to get that it's not worth risking it. I might try a blessed enchant one day but...no real reason to go above +3.
OEed weapons don't give you as much of an offensive boost as one might think. Apart from shots, OE is the biggest money sink in this game, removing wealth from the economy and providing a constant demand for new weapons to be crafted. I think it serves its purpose well.
lol there is an OE bug, you can believe it or not, but there is one. As for people in High levels not using OE weapons, what server are you playing on? If your a mage, maybe not in the beginning, but everyone is looking to upgrade and many already have OE SOM that cost ridiculously and stupidly high for a +4 its insane....but people still BUY them?
lol there is an OE bug, you can believe it or not, but there is one. As for people in High levels not using OE weapons, what server are you playing on? If your a mage, maybe not in the beginning, but everyone is looking to upgrade and many already have OE SOM that cost ridiculously and stupidly high for a +4 its insane....but people still BUY them?
Seroiusly this problem needs to be dealth with.
Yes there is. And it probably has something to do with the aliens in the government conspiracy.
i myself can't go anywhere without seeing half a dozen +7-+12's everywhere..... EVERYWHERE... and i can go to just about any town and see a +16 floating around .. either in a shop.. or being hauled around by any character...
I would be too scared to even fumble with all this mess :)
But:
Statistics are mathematical equations "trying" describing standard reality. A human being just can flatout ignore statistics.
Even Mathematics cant beat ignorance (that statistics exist)
and wishfull thinking. ;)
This is total BS. Everyone in the know, KNOWS that there is a super secret OE exploit out there and NCSOFT does not care to put enough time to combat this problem, even after it has been reported to them time and time again.
I dont understand the stupidity that proliferates some game developers. Something like making mass OE weapons on a server is very unhealthy as the whole purpose of making the possibility of +16 weapons is supposed to be that they are SUPER RARE. But this isnt the case as more and more time passes by. They need to evaluate this OE system and plug the leak, so to speak, before they screw the game world to hell. Its ridiculous as it is that almost everyone carries around a OE weapon and "nomral" weapons are soo rare its stupid even thinking of seeing one, ESPECIALLY at the higher levels.
technically, your chances of going from +19 to +20 are still 2/3
statistically, the occurence of successfully going from +19 to +20 is 0.09%
the more you try, the more the statistics are going to be verified
No, the chance of going from +19 to +20 is the same chance of going +3 to +4.
No matter what enchant you are going for, there is always the same 70% chance (about) for it to work. What you are saying is if you have 100 weapons that are +19, only 9 of them will get to +20 which is false. Really, you will end up with around 70 of them making it +20.
Agreed. Every enchant scroll has a 2/3 chance of working each time you apply it. Much like flipping a coin. Twice I've had a weapon go from +0 to +11 in succession in one sitting, and many more times I've had a pile of crystals going to +4. All you have to ask yourself is ... "Do I feel lucky today?"
Back to the odds. Odds are you won't get successive positives, but it doesn't mean it can't happen. Now back to your regularly scheduled programming. :)
This is total BS. Everyone in the know, KNOWS that there is a super secret OE exploit out there and NCSOFT does not care to put enough time to combat this problem, even after it has been reported to them time and time again.
I dont understand the stupidity that proliferates some game developers. Something like making mass OE weapons on a server is very unhealthy as the whole purpose of making the possibility of +16 weapons is supposed to be that they are SUPER RARE. But this isnt the case as more and more time passes by. They need to evaluate this OE system and plug the leak, so to speak, before they screw the game world to hell. Its ridiculous as it is that almost everyone carries around a OE weapon and "nomral" weapons are soo rare its stupid even thinking of seeing one, ESPECIALLY at the higher levels.
Steaming pile of logic.
How "super secret" can it be if everyone "in the know" knows...
"You keep using that word, secret. I don't think it means what you think it means."
its pretty simple really.. prices of a certain item on certain site are cheap... that why you see all these noobs with multiple D grade +16 weapons (gogo wasting $ on D grade)
its pretty simple really.. prices of a certain item on certain site are cheap... that why you see all these noobs with multiple D grade +16 weapons (gogo wasting $ on D grade)
Right on the money there Mr Pancak3s, in more ways then one =P
i've only seen 3 +16 D grade weapons.... i've seen probably close to 30 C grade... and probably 10 B.... bought 3 or 4 A grade and i swear i saw a +8 or better dragonic bow already which i have no doubt will end up being +16 shortly...
i mean nearly 1 month after C 3 popped out.. there were +16 dual Damascus..
i've only seen 3 +16 D grade weapons.... i've seen probably close to 30 C grade... and probably 10 B.... bought 3 or 4 A grade and i swear i saw a +8 or better dragonic bow already which i have no doubt will end up being +16 shortly...
i mean nearly 1 month after C 3 popped out.. there were +16 dual Damascus..
Oh there is definetely some sort of bug lol, I just wanna know what it is. I have tried to find my way, but no luck yet. Just a lot of d and c crystals :D. WTS about 10000 D Crystals and about 5000 C Crystals.
The highest I ever got was +8 dual kats which I still use. Sold ones I got to +6. Other than that all popped at +5 or less. I just popped my +3 emi bow last night because some clannies were trying their luck. I figure I try mine and it didnt work :(. Popped at +4. Someone give me a new emi pretty please. I'm a gladi with no emi bow. Sad....
Guess that explains multiple sightings of +16 soul (HIGH A GRADE) bows? Sure..yeah...people just spend loads of RL money to try that out? Must be the luckiest SOB I ever saw.
one wonders whether the rumors are true. whether there really is a tag on each weapon indicating at which point an enchant will fail. a tag in binary enabling each stage of enchant. speculation, but worthy of pressing into it.
It doesn't matter if they are all in a row... done in 1 minute or 1 month.. or anything.. those are the chances that you'll succeed in successfully enchanting.
Doesn't matter if each enchant has a chance of 66% at each enchant.... it's besides the point... it's still the values above.