Drop rates math - call me a noob

Well call me a noob I won't mind. You might even tell me to play smarter. It'd only be justice (hi Balis) since I've said it enough myself but I was wondering a lil' something for some (huge amount of) time and decided to ask.

We've all seen the drop tables. Be the the (de)famed Prima ones or more recently, the [banned site] dynamicly player sumitted ones.

So we all know some items drop 70/100, others 1/20, 1/447, 1/3k, 1/30k, 1/220k ...
But also I haven't seen a mob drop 5 items at once (besides bosses). And if the stats were purely based on a dice launch, it should happen.

I remember someone telling that the first dice launch was to decide the number of items to be dropped.
And then from the greatest to the lowest probability, all dices were to roll till the slots are filled.
Is it true ?

Or could 7 items really drop from a mob if the dices roll in that direction ?
Anyone has an idea of the formulas behind that ?µ
Were the Prima stats biased or were they taking that phenomenom into account ?
Am I missing it ?

You tell me.

I think the max I've seen is 1 adena drop and 2 material drops from one mob.

NOOB !

There is a limit on the number of items a mob can drop and spoil, both are checked seperately.

If a mob got a 75% to drop varnish and a 75% chance to drop iron ore, then you technically should come out with the same number of varnish and iron in the long run.

However, whatever is checked first, will have a much higher result, if the mob is set to yield only 1 item at max.

In 75% of all cases you would get Varnish, and only in 25%*75% you would get Iron Ore. In 25%*25% you would not get either.

That is not prooven of course, but the constant gathering of materials as a BH do give enough data to found this thesis.

So if you got a chance to kill two different mobs, who both drop EW:B at 1%, but Mob A also got a 50% chance to drop thread, then you better kill Mob B. Your chances to get EW:B are truely higher.

Conditional Kitten

I think the max I've seen is 1 adena drop and 2 material drops from one mob.

didnt that happen in c3?
most ive seen in c5 is a full drop a mat and some adena
i guess it is possible to get a mat, a key mat, a full drop and adena but the drop rates are so low that prolly wouldnt happen

Hello,

HI MIZ!

If the drop tables are correct, then we are just missing how "# of items droped" is calculated. This would have been a perfect question for the devs. Maybe Mistryl can ask for us, or if she knows can share it with us, unless its marked "SUPER TOP SECRET" which would not suprise me, as I know it would not suprise you as well.




Take care
Balis
GotPie??

Yup, the cat got it right.

This is especially bad for full items and rare recipes, even full drops in catacombs/necros. Because if the mobs often drop lower end mats, you risk the rare drops never getting checked (because you already hit the limit)

Yup, the cat got it right.

This is especially bad for full items and rare recipes, even full drops in catacombs/necros. Because if the mobs often drop lower end mats, you risk the rare drops never getting checked (because you already hit the limit)

But if I'm correct the [banned site] have the real life figures, with the skew applied.
And they dont' seem to that far off from the Prima figures.

I especially noticed this in the partisan highway. Back in my youth (long time ago) I used to go there to spoil steel (a mob is listed in prima as giving 80% 1-3 varnish and 80% 1-3 iron ore). However the varnish was much more frequently spoiled, ending up at 4x the varnish as the iron.

Since the [removed] site is grabbing the drop data directly from the Client-Server communication (which is a breach of the EULA btw !!!!), they naturally are getting the real data.

Since I know, that there are Freeshard players with 10x rates submitting their data to that site too, the data is not only illegally gathered, but also at least somewhat false.

n00b Kitten

Thats not what it does. It simply records the amount of drops, then divide it up with the amount of recorded kills.

So if you have 2 drops of X weapon and 500.000 mobs killed, it will report the droprate as 1/250.000

Yes, they are close, because the conditions needed to nullify a full drop is still quite alot (you'd need to get 5 or so other drops)

Schmuse,
if you look at the FAQ on that censored website, you will see that data coming from Free servers is not part of the pool and is not counted in the probabilities.
What the applet does is get the drop and divide by number of kills as correctly stated after your post.
Data coming from Free servers is NOT part of the statistic pool the applet gathers (although if you play on a private server, you are allowed upload of drops purely to guarantee you access to the info contained in the databases).
rgds
N

Since I know, that there are Freeshard players with 10x rates submitting their data to that site too, the data is not only illegally gathered, but also at least somewhat false.

Without getting too much into a discussion about that particular site, that point is wrong. The tool puts the server IP into the encrypted data you send, and data from non-official servers is rejected/discarded. The data should be reliable.

QFT

QFT

But you didn't quote anything o.O

Since I know, that there are Freeshard players with 10x rates submitting their data to that site too, the data is not only illegally gathered, but also at least somewhat false.

Without getting too much into a discussion about that particular site, that point is wrong. The tool puts the server IP into the encrypted data you send, and data from non-official servers is rejected/discarded. The data should be reliable.


they even clean the database after an event with, for exemple, raid bosses drop more then usual ;)

let me explain it as best i can. the drops for mobs are not all in seperate "blocks" that have the set chance of dropping each time. each mob has a couple seperate "blocks" with a certain number of items in each block. also each block has a certain % chance of getting rolled into. such as the ant queen ring. it has a 30% chance of getting into, and a 100% chance of dropping that 1 item. it also has like 7 other blocks full of different items, ranging in like 30-100% chance of getting into those blocks everytime the mob is killed. inside those blocks each item has a certain % chance of dropping adding up to 100%, so u will get at least 1 item from within that block if u roll into it, just some items have a better chance of rolling since they are less valuable.

heres like an example of what i mean:
<font class="small">Code:<hr /><pre> (%_chance_of_getting_this_blocks_drop)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
| item_name_1,min_drop_num,max_drop_num,%_chance_to_ get_item_in_block |
| item_name_2,min_drop_num,max_drop_num,%_chance_to_ get_item_in_block |
| item_name_3,min_drop_num,max_drop_num,%_chance_to_ get_item_in_block |
| item_name_4,min_drop_num,max_drop_num,%_chance_to_ get_item_in_block |
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
(%_chance_of_getting_this_blocks_drop)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
| item_name_5,min_drop_num,max_drop_num,%_chance_to_ get_item_in_block |
| item_name_6,min_drop_num,max_drop_num,%_chance_to_ get_item_in_block |
| item_name_7,min_drop_num,max_drop_num,%_chance_to_ get_item_in_block |
| item_name_8,min_drop_num,max_drop_num,%_chance_to_ get_item_in_block |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------- </pre><hr />

so like antharas if u look at screenshots, u will never ever get 2 items from the same block. like u will only see 1 s boot, 1 s glove, 1 s armor, 1 s helmet.

the unmentionable site just ignores the box structure and calculates on the number of times it drops versus how many mob kills reported.

It would be awfully silly to watch Anthras pop and drop half as many items...or pop and drop 10x as many items...

heres like an example of what i mean:
<font class="small">Code:<hr /><pre> (%_chance_of_getting_this_blocks_drop)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
| item_name_1,min_drop_num,max_drop_num,%_chance_to_ get_item_in_block |
| item_name_2,min_drop_num,max_drop_num,%_chance_to_ get_item_in_block |
| item_name_3,min_drop_num,max_drop_num,%_chance_to_ get_item_in_block |
| item_name_4,min_drop_num,max_drop_num,%_chance_to_ get_item_in_block |
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
(%_chance_of_getting_this_blocks_drop)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
| item_name_5,min_drop_num,max_drop_num,%_chance_to_ get_item_in_block |
| item_name_6,min_drop_num,max_drop_num,%_chance_to_ get_item_in_block |
| item_name_7,min_drop_num,max_drop_num,%_chance_to_ get_item_in_block |
| item_name_8,min_drop_num,max_drop_num,%_chance_to_ get_item_in_block |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------- </pre><hr />

so like antharas if u look at screenshots, u will never ever get 2 items from the same block. like u will only see 1 s boot, 1 s glove, 1 s armor, 1 s helmet.

Very interesting. Where did you get that info ?

I really don't care how the math works for calculating drops. All I know is that its broken, 28 lvl's and counting without a full item drop.

All I know is that its broken, 28 lvl's and counting without a full item drop.

look at the PTS ... u can kill hours and hours and no FullDrop... with 10x rates,lol

thats is why only 24/7 successful in this game...
NC created the whole "AF" problem by emself, lowering drops/spoils cuz "AF" getting to much and then real players need to buy from "AF" cuz they dont get anything anymore.

result = more "AF" toons coming, cuz its alot RL $$$...

i remember the time when it was possible to go on a BH and spoil what u need ... w/o a low 1:50000000 chance for a "recipe/whatever".

BTW, its annoying to try to spoil a recipe u need "not totally drunken"... cuz it takes a eternity, almost w/o any fun/success ;)

that crappy drop/spoil rates the problem at all, not the "AF" toons. FIX IT and ppl can try to get their "recipes/keymats" by emself by playing a dorf for FUN !!!

a full drop on live server is like x-mas ... 1 time in a year,lol

GG, NC... like always ^^

All I know is that its broken, 28 lvl's and counting without a full item drop.

look at the PTS ... u can kill hours and hours and no FullDrop... with 10x rates,lol

thats is why only 24/7 successful in this game...
NC created the whole "AF" problem by emself, lowering drops/spoils cuz "AF" getting to much and then real players need to buy from "AF" cuz they dont get anything anymore.

result = more "AF" toons coming, cuz its alot RL $$$...

i remember the time when it was possible to go on a BH and spoil what u need ... w/o a low 1:50000000 chance for a "recipe/whatever".

BTW, its annoying to try to spoil a recipe u need "not totally drunken"... cuz it takes a eternity, almost w/o any fun/success ;)

that crappy drop/spoil rates the problem at all, not the "AF" toons. FIX IT and ppl can try to get their "recipes/keymats" by emself by playing a dorf for FUN !!!

a full drop on live server is like x-mas ... 1 time in a year,lol

GG, NC... like always ^^

This game is a grind all around. Kind of defeats the point if you start making things easily accessible.

grind = ok

but when u have after a 12h session only crap in ur inventory, like threads, then is something wrong, or ? :)