Hello All! As it was mentioned here before (@ this "player question" section ) weapon has a 66% chance of success to go from +3 ->+4, from +4 -> +5 and EVEN from +12 -> +13. We will not ARGUE THAT in this Topic plz.
I just wanted to know chances for +++ Armor. There is a new feature in C5 like when you do +6 all your armor set parts --> it gives some new effects (bonuses let's say).
So, my questions are the following:
1. Does anybody know what are the chances of making an Armor +3->+4 +4->+5 etc. ?
2. Did anybody do +6 armor before? If "yes" - how many items did u fail? What Grade were these items?
I was trying to make BW heavy set up to +6 and I had only +4 boots and +4 Breastplate: both items were broken @ trying to make it +5.
i hade success with Brigantine tunic and gaiters til +4, for this i broakt one tunic. As tryid to exhant brig helmet to +4 with blessed and got to 0 again. :S
So for me the exhants are not so lucky, but it the game. So i wanted some fun, so i hade some fun.
Just dont risk with your gear if your not ready to buy newone!!!
People who do a large amount of OEing have reported that armor generally have a 40% or so chance of OEing. Most weapons except mage weapons have around a 66% chance.
That was what happens when someone takes a set of Over enchant results and applies a bit of math (Bernoulli Theorem) to see what the odds 'appear to be'.
So basically the results (Optomistic/median/pessimistic) don't jive with what NC soft has been telling us. Or at least anything that is not a Weapon enchant...the weapon OE numbers pretty much match the 'official word'.)
...Just don't ask me how the math exactly works, that level of math nerdiness was ever beyond me...But Hey! It's named after some ancient dead guy, so it must be good! :p
weapon has a 66% chance of success to go from +3 ->+4, from +4 -> +5 and EVEN from +12 -> +13. We will not ARGUE THAT in this Topic plz. .
There is nothing to debate. When you log into the game, the hints and tip section clearly states that you have a 1 in 3 chance of vaporizing a weapon when attempting an enchant beyond +3.
As for armor, I've heard anywhere from 40% - 50% chance of success...but I'm waiting to see if that information, too, gets posted in the hints and tip section at log in.
Actually, I would love to see the proof for that one.
The real OE probabilty is between 49.83% and 56.55% with a confidence level of 95%
The real OE probabilty is between 49.2% and 57.18% with a confidence level of 98%
The real OE probabilty is between 48.77% and 57.61% with a confidence level of 99%
Again, we come to the issue of sample size. While those numbers, put through the Bernouli equations would suggest approximately that percentage, the success rate is also 1 in 3 for armor as it is for weapons. At least if my mediocre translation skills are to be trusted. Korean site basically says it is a 1 in 3 chance of enchanting past +3 for weapons and armor.
Using the Bernouli on the appropriate sample size would net 70% success ratio with approximately 97% accuracy (=/-3%), but you would need a sample size in excess of 4 or 5 million attempts. Same as you would for weapon enchanting.
In the end, the only thing you can really rely on is the fact that the enchant rate after +3 is 70%. That is for each attempt. Refer to my chart in the last enchanting thread for the exact odds for any given value. It's on page 17 or something, I forget which.
And remember kiddies, odds are different that success rate. And don't forget to eat your peas and study your statistics. Especially that last one, because you can't apply theorems when you have no clue how to use them.
And remember kiddies, odds are different that success rate. And don't forget to eat your peas and study your statistics. Especially that last one, because you can't apply theorems when you have no clue how to use them.
Wow Abisha, after reading your post about the Bernouli Theorem, I had thought that you educated yourself a bit.
his armor blowed up at enchenting to +3 bro
not from +3 -> +4
Obviously, I am mistaken. Debra is correct. The first two blew going from +3 to +4 and the last from +4 to +5.
Now, you have to remember, that while the enchant probability for any enchant after +3 (+4 for one piece armors) is 2:3, it is also safe to assume that there still is a 1:3 chance of failing. At any given time.
While statistics can help develop long term strategy for dealing with enchants, it is not a fool-proof solution. Especially concerning random and psuedo-random number sequences.You always have to remember that, if there is a 1:3 chance of failing an enchant, it is a 1:3 chance for every attempt.
According to statistics, the guy with the DC Leather has approximately 29.6% chance of succeeding on any given piece, with 95% accuracy and +/-2.1%. Odds state that on 3 attempts, he should have been successful on one of them. Unfortunately, luck being the fickle beast she is, that wasn't the case this time. Next time, however, he may get two or three pieces to +6. Either way, the chances even out in the long term, while they may seem erronous in the short term. And by long term, I mean 4 million + attempts.
I've made 10 attempt to OE armor. My success rate is ...
60%
So, while 10 attempts is not a lot (and by no means a large enough sample size to be definitive) it does support the confidence interval quoted earlier.
On a different note, I've made 45 attempts to OE weapons with a 64% success rate. Again this is close to the 2/3 posted on the L2 login screen.
EDIT1: fixed to remove jewelry from data.
EDIT2: most data (and the L2 login screen) indicate that the chance to OE a weapon is constant with the enchant level (i.e. going +3 to +4 is 2/3 and +15 to +16 is 2/3). However, most people claim that armor and jewelry is NOT constant. I don't have enough of my own data to make a position on this but keep this in mind.
In my case here is the data (all armor):
+3 to +4: 67%, 6 attempts
+4 to +5: 67%, 3 attempts
+5 to +6: 0%, 1 attempt
I was only saying 50% for +5->+6 seemed innacurate to me... the 20% differance in chance would make a huge differance in price considering how expensive it is to even make +5 >.<
+6 A grade armor is expensive, If I bought everything at market prices instead of from manor/hero, It would have cost 800m-1b for +6 Tallum heavy 8O... luckily it only cost me about 100m or less to upgrade from +3(+4 plate) to +6 all 8D
That was what happens when someone takes a set of Over enchant results and applies a bit of math (Bernoulli Theorem) to see what the odds 'appear to be'.
So basically the results (Optomistic/median/pessimistic) don't jive with what NC soft has been telling us. Or at least anything that is not a Weapon enchant...the weapon OE numbers pretty much match the 'official word'.)
I'm pretty sure this was answered in Korea.
Weapons have a 66% chance; all weapons and all enchants above +3 are the same.
Armor/Jewelry has a 50% chance; all unsafe enchantments on all armors are the same.
The-site-which-cannot-be-named has confirmed data from approximately 1000 different armor overenchant attempts(and 2600 weapons/600 jewelry), and seems to match those numbers pretty well.
That was what happens when someone takes a set of Over enchant results and applies a bit of math (Bernoulli Theorem) to see what the odds 'appear to be'.
So basically the results (Optomistic/median/pessimistic) don't jive with what NC soft has been telling us. Or at least anything that is not a Weapon enchant...the weapon OE numbers pretty much match the 'official word'.)
I'm pretty sure this was answered in Korea.
Weapons have a 66% chance; all weapons and all enchants above +3 are the same.
Armor/Jewelry has a 50% chance; all unsafe enchantments on all armors are the same.
The-site-which-cannot-be-named has confirmed data from approximately 1000 different armor overenchant attempts(and 2600 weapons/600 jewelry), and seems to match those numbers pretty well.
they did not take into account the rising level of enchant, however
If youll notice they also had a very low ammount of trials for most items. Most of their data is under 10 tries per item, so in the end they are averaging a lot of 100%s and 0%s. The more trials you do, the more likely you are to get close to the actual rate. Say youre rolling a die that has an exactly 1 in 6 chance to land with each side up. If you roll it 6 times, you probably not get each side once. However if you roll it 6000 times, the amount of times each side comes up should be pretty close to 1000.
Yay!!! Someone else who understands statistics!!!!
Even 6000 attempts isn't enough of a sample size, however. In order to really appreciate the statistics and to take into account randomness, millions of tests need to be conducted. On the same piece of gear.
BTW, flcon, you enchant ratio on the Bronze Shield is about correct, and well within norms, statistically speaking.
And also, for those of you who want to know. While I believe in my statistics 100% (+/-3%), I have a VERY poor enchant rate. I have blown multiple complete armor sets going from +3 to +4. I have blown hundreds of weapons going between +3 and +5. And I have successfully enchanted one +8, one +7, and three +6's. My enchant success rate for +8 is somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.2%, well below the 8.779% estimated by statistics.
Just don't get frustrated while enchanting. You can never get back at Lady Luck, no matter how hard you try to do so.
based on those stats you have about a 1 in 18 chance of taking an item from +3->+6 o.O lol I was really lucky in my Tallum enchanting.
You **** right about that! I wish I could have Tallum +6 too...
P.S. Can you describe the bonuses it actually gives? I mean what are the stats changes?