Well I've always been for a harsh game but I finally may be near the end of my patience.
We all know 60% sucks, stats are only stats etc...
But I don't ebay so funds are limited.
I play two toons : 65 SR and 64 smith.
I've so far attempted 4 A grade crafts.
2 carnage and 2 elysian.
They all failed.
That's about 100 mils that went poof.
I have 11 mils left on each toon.
SR is in A armor, Dwarf in B.
I don't see how I could grind back the missing 50 mils for an A weap.
I'm not sure I want to spend the time to play the market to win enough to fail again.
I'm all for 60% but there should be a limit to bad luck.
If you fail an A weap craft, the next tries should have a better %age or so.
NC may finally have found a way to get rid of me. Please toggle back the flag to be able to succeed such crafts.
(and of course, mr gm, this is not an 'Iquit' post nor a conspiracy or a threat one.)
You have absolutely nothing on my fiancee. He's around 8/60 A grade crafts, and has never succeeded a 60% b grade craft. He's the WS with the worst luck I've ever seen..
Meh, bad luck or no bad luck but at that lvl, with a WS of that lvl 150mil should be easy to make 100% foolproof way. Or then your server has a really whacky economy.
Then again, do you keep a toon logged all the time you're afk too?
I've succeeded only 1 out of my 6 A-weapon crafts, but still it doesnt matter since those were not meant for building up my adena pile, but for equipping clannies and different toons of me own. Dont even wanna think about the whole total of A-crafts failed ^^
Anyway, if you cant really risk failing so many crafts in a row, you'd better just outright buy the item. As you said, it has now been 161mil for a single carnage bow, that you could have bought for 61mil too. That would have left 100mil for buying an Elysian.
Instead of giving better chance on the next craft, they could give like 1/3 of the items crystal value on a failed craft. Wouldnt sting that much blowing up those SoMs.
I think the system does not need to be changed, but as with B grade 100% Recipes for A added. Yes it would mean youwould have to hunting them longer but you have a choice take a chance craft 60% or spend the time gather up 100% Recipes.
You don't have to ebay to be rich. Work for your money to buy the whole item....
Can you please elaborate on that? I read it very often as an advice and I can't really understand it's meaning. Does it involve the creation of more characters, the way someone plays or something else?
not really on this subject but at the same time it is
i failed 3 +1 mechanic golems in a row at 80% success rate
i also failed a +2 hammer crush at 95%
You don't have to ebay to be rich. Work for your money to buy the whole item....
Can you please elaborate on that? I read it very often as an advice and I can't really understand it's meaning. Does it involve the creation of more characters, the way someone plays or something else?
No, it's just something Trolls say to look interesting.
And Maline I know how to make money, just look at my item list.
SR in full maj, armor and jewels; WS in full BW/BO all +3 and a carnage bow.
All were obtained way before the grade cap and equipped at grade cap +0.01% or so.
And it was true for C, B and A, besides the weaps on A grade.
It's just unbearable to have a "random" system so awfully made up.
I know that from a programmer perspective (it's what I've learned at college after all) pure randomness prolly is the hardest thing to code but since it's so hard, there should be mechanisms to counter the evident downsides.
I just can't believe that NC's game makers were finding it a natural event to have such bad luck.
I'm even pretty sure they were too proud of their work and didn't thoroughly tested it. "4 fails in a row won't happen since our 60% is sooo goood" right...
Actually, it's not something trolls say to be interesting. Making money involves manoring, possibly nighttime fishing (I recently realised that just off the ocassional casual fish I had somehow managed to gather almost 20mil), digging through Giran for deals, finding things you can resell higher and produce regularly, etc.
It is not a problem to buy A Grade weapons by the time you need them, and if you don't want to buy them, you'll have to deal with taking the risk.
Or do you want OEs to become more likely to succeed the more often you crystallise things too?
hehe mine got 5 sucsess crafts, and 2 fails ^^ ( 2 Zubei robes failed, 1 sucseeded and 4 tallum helmet sucseeded ^^ ) So :) 70% LOL.
But anyhow the only thing I see worthfull is that WS should be able to enchant crafting at 76+ each enchant lv should give an 0,5% chans, so in the long run they can max add 15% sucsess rate aka 60 to 75%. I say thats quite a fair deal, and then WS got something to fight fore.
Are you trying to craft solo? Crafting works best if done by an entire clan. No one person takes the brunt of a failed craft that way. The clan that crafts together not only stays together but has fun crafting and gets stuff done. So far in the last 6 months my clan has crafted 2 DC robe sets, 1 Nightmare Heavy set, 1 Majestic Robe set, 1 Elemental Sword, and 1 Elysian Axe. I won't count how many B grade sets we have made.
I have 4 more A grade armor sets on my project list and the basic materials are nearly all gathered up so within a month or so that list will be a bit longer :)
I'm even pretty sure they were too proud of their work and didn't thoroughly tested it. "4 fails in a row won't happen since our 60% is sooo goood" right...
This may be true if you owned a random number stream. You don't. I can guarentee that. During the time you were failing 4 crafts, several hundred more people were crafting; some succeeding, some failing. You cannot view your results in a vacuum.
So far I'm 100% on A grade crafts. Last one was on Red8. I heard how unlucky he was so I thought I'd try him. Actually no one else had the recipe I wanted up on the craftshop. :p
So far I'm 100% on A grade crafts. Last one was on Red8. I heard how unlucky he was so I thought I'd try him. Actually no one else had the recipe I wanted up on the craftshop. :p
He's only unlucky on his own crafts. (And mine - he failed me 4/5 bw helms the other nite. I almost pk'd him.)
You don't have to ebay to be rich. Work for your money to buy the whole item....
Can you please elaborate on that? I read it very often as an advice and I can't really understand it's meaning. Does it involve the creation of more characters, the way someone plays or something else?
You have 7 spots for a reason, it's intended to be a MMORPG as well...there are a lot of ways to make enough money to get AG at lvl 61 0.01%...legally.
But of course there are enough people here who believe that everyone who is better geared at the same level ebayed their stuff together.
At the moment I did 9 AG crafts, all 9 worked. So I am at 100%...all with the same dwarf ;) She knows who she is :)
This month I've failed.. 2 Elysians, 5 Maj Rings, 1 maj Boots, I've succeeded on 1 Elysian 1 Maj Boot and 1 NM helmet.
I think Im still ahead, but yes, failing weapons sucks but there is not much to be done about it. If you can garauntee a success in 4 tries, the market value will go UP, not down. It makes no sense to try and set it up any other way than it is now. Buy your mats in Gludio/Gludin/Dion overnight, and you'll get the mats much cheaper than Giran, but it is more slow. Hell, you can still make decent cash with low level spoilers and EWD or materials. Keep seeding, join a clan that will help you with crafts, do somthing positive instead of complaining about it.
On the contrary, more items on the market would be pretty ****ed nice. With more items and a constant amount of total adena, the price of each item should fall, resulting in a decrease in the price level, otherwise called disinflation, something we desperately need. And with enough luck, the price of that elusive nightmare helm might finally fall into a range which I can afford.
I cant see how making it a max 4 tries to craft somthing before success would lower the value, 4 tries is typically the current cost of a weapon on Lionna(depending on how you get your mats). I sunk maybe 15m into each Elysian craft on Gems, Crystals and mats I didnt have, so I spent about the value of an elysian anyways, but over time instead of in one chunk. Costs like 5m to make a top A helmet if you get the recs yourself(which is easy nowadays, make friends with a 70ish BH). Nothing in this game is "hard" its just time consuming.
And I can't see how it could raise the value. Maximizing the failure at 4 reduces the expected amount of materials you will need compared to being able to fail an infinite amount of times. Yes I can understand were you to say that because you expect to need fewer materials, you'd be willing to buy the materials for more, but that willingness itself wont raise the price as you could still buy materials at the cost of the normal 60% craft if you so chose to do so. And because you can fail at most 4 times, you will end up buying fewer materials, and with the entire server buying fewer materials but the rate of materials being produced through drops and the manor system is relatively constant per day. With a constant stream of resources, the price per material drops as the rate of material consumption falls but material production does not.
As the price of your inputs fall, you can either charge less to earn the same profit, or earn more profit than before by charging the same price. However it is now more likely that someone else is going to underprice you because the cost of production is now small enough that selling for a lower price becomes more profitable. In order to sell your own goods within a certain frame of time, you to will have to lower your own price to remain competitive. End result, the price of all items will fall.
You have absolutely nothing on my fiancee. He's around 8/60 A grade crafts, and has never succeeded a 60% b grade craft. He's the WS with the worst luck I've ever seen..
Wish I knew before failing 2 BW helmets in a row with him:)
My craft shop, however, is closer to 85% success. SWE is wrong tho, I have succeeded 3 BW Leather 60% crafts, but have failed the remainder of the 40+ b grade % crafts I have tried.
On my warsmith, I get this mental picture of me swinging the hammer one last time to create the item. So the solution for me and advice I give to the OP as well as Red8:
im about 33/35 for A and S grade jewlery crafts for myself
my craft shops are prolly as close to 60% success as you can get
my sister failed 9 tallum plate crafts in a row and even after succeeding a som shes not allowed to craft any more ><
OK there is no reason to increase the % on A and S grade crafts. These items are suppose to be rare not something everyone has. I truely believe that the % for A and S grade be reduced, of course I also want Blessed enchants gone to ;). These items should not be all over the place like it seams they are. I am sorry A grade should still be fairly rare and S grade should be scarce at this stage of the game.
See, but they aren't rare. Go to a siege and you'll find pretty much every toon has a-grade or better. Actually I've been at sieges where our opponents were entirely s-grade. They aren't rare.
I know that is my point something that was suppose to be rare and represent somekind of achievement is common. I will get flamed for this next statement but here it goes. B grade crafts should be no higher then 80%, A grade should be 50% and S grade should be 30% success rate. I also think blessed enchants were a bad idea.
What about giving crystals for a failed craft equal or somewhat less than the amount you get for overenchanting and failing? That way you don't loose all you invested and it helps providing the market with more crystals.
I dont know how they could work the failed craft yielding crystals.I would think maybe a small % of the gemstones be refunded. Now on the recipe coming back I strongly say no. That should be used up in the craft weather it fails or not. Of course it doesnt really matter what we say or think on this cause they already set it up that way.
It wasn't supposed to be rare, it was supposed to be hard to get. And it is.
And it wasn't supposed to be rare for the sake of BALANCE.
Look at what heroes are when in hero gear. Overpowered compared to the rest. That gear is purposely discriminating.
D C B A S are only supposed to be discriminating in early days, then, for the sake of balance, everyone can get to it.
The point is 60%, WHEN NOT COUNTER BALANCED AND WHEN LEFT TO NC'S VERY POOR RANDOM ALGORYTHM is TOO hard if you can fail 4 times in a row.
what's random about 60%? doesn't it mean exactly what it says? i've seen innumerable people struggling to get recipes and materials together (even at b-grade) and often wondered why they'd spend all the time and effort to try and find a particular recipe when merely selling off the remaining materials would provide them with more than enough capital to buy the item outright. on the server im on your two craft items would have run you no more than 85m all told, and yet you instead chose to attempt to manufacture the item yourself. knowing full well that the rate of success was 60%, you chose to take the chance of blowing up your items. that was your call, and no malfunction on the part of the crafting system.
if you look through the threads even going back to lineage 1, the koreans were convinced that certain characters were "born" either lucky or unlucky, and were known to off high level toons on the chance of a lucky reroll. whether or not there is something to that is beyond our ability to know, just as there is no way of saying that when the stars are all aligned on the third evening of a victory by the revolutionaries of dusk that valakas will spawn in a certain place and spew out draconic bows to all who dare witness it.
i'm sorry to hear that your success rate is poor at best, but your puerile comments of not having money because you don't ebay and so forth are unwarranted. just as they don't make the crafting of 11/12 sa crystals easily accessible, the crafting of the items to which they would be attributed should not be easy either.
60% is a gamble, and it's my understanding that gambling is more popular in Korea than it is here.
I personally find it kind of thrilling. It's definitely doesn't suit everyone.
Miz, look at it this way. Perhaps your next 4 A grade crafts will all succeed. You basically beat the odds with 4 fails, you could just as easily beat them again with successes.
I've experienced the same thing. In C4 I crafted a Carnage and SoulBow at the exact same time - click, click. Both failed. I was ******. Then the other day, I crafted 2 other A grade weapons, both succeeded.
I've crafted lots and lots of Majestic Jewels. In the short run, I've come out on top, and I've come out below. If you look at all of it though, I'm probably just ahead of the 70% curve.
Any gambler will tell you that if you want to win big, you have to bet big. Gambling being what it is, that means you also stand to lose big.
At least with 60% the odds are in the players favor. It may be that you need to play 10 or 12 hands before it all works out. Of course, it may be in the cards for you to lose your ***.
I do have a couple recommendations though.
- Never bet your last dollar.
- If you don't have the stomach for gambling, don't take the risk, just buy the item you want.
I personally find it kind of thrilling. It's definitely doesn't suit everyone.
There is definitely truth to this. I think the thrill of crafting (don't laugh :mad:) gets my heart pumping more than just about any other experience in L2. Wouldn't trade it for anything.
Edit: I'll have to add that OEing is like this as well...
Keep in mind that there is a large difference between having 85 mil to buy somthing outright, and having 15m for crystals, gemstones, blades, and mats you were not able to obtain through seeding or spoiling. I had 200m when I failed my 2 elysians. Yet I still took a shot at a 3rd craft. I'm currently sitting at 150m and have my elysian, plus a NM helmet I crafted first try that Im selling for profit.
If I had bought the Elysian Outright, I would be down closer to 100m, and still need money for a stage 12 and the gems to put it on. Taking the risk and crafting can save you a lot of money, or it can burn you if you just barely have the cash for the craft. Next up, we're taking 2 shots at dragon grinders in hopes of crafting atleast one and crushing it for crystals since our clan supply is low and a lot of people need shots.
And for those of you who want even more fun, TOP A GRADE WEAPONS in Interlude. Pardon me while I go kill myself.
i'm sorry to hear that your success rate is poor at best, but your puerile comments of not having money because you don't ebay and so forth are unwarranted. just as they don't make the crafting of 11/12 sa crystals easily accessible, the crafting of the items to which they would be attributed should not be easy either.
thats my $0.02
Actually it was worth a lot less than 0.02. And the thread is not about you being able to decide who is childish or not. As we care...
Anyway... Instead of pointing what you think I may miss, try to see what you miss.
60% and the randomization aren't bad by essence. But their implementation is.
I don't freaking care if globally, servers wide, on thousands of tries, the recipes are 60%. What I do care about is that that %age is met on a human level. So when YOU craft at 60% YOU WILL GET 60%. And not 60% if you add your 99% failures to someone else's 99% successes. If you can fail 4 or 9 times in a row, the randomization is bugged because it is not working properly on YOUR human level, on the crafts YOU will make.
what you are asking to see would give a guarantee of a certain number of successful crafts after a certain number of attempts. that being the case, nc would then have to determine your individual crafting success rate - not only level-specific but item-specific as well. if you attempted 6 bwla and 4 nm helms and failed on all the helms would they be fulfilling your wishes then, or would ncs have still not met your needs? it is all well and good to rant about your inability to make your items, but what you're asking them to do is far more involved than simply saying they'll make craft %ages on an individual basis from now on.
if you fail four or nine or 100 times in a row, it still might be a 60% chance of success. ever flipped a coin? try it sometime and you might be surprised at how often it comes up tails. theoretically it should be 50%, but if i dont get heads for my first or second flip does that mean that my coin is bad, or that im flipping incorrectly? it's simply the product of chance. you took a chance, and it failed. you took another chance, and it failed again. grab your bootstraps and try it again. maybe it'll work and maybe it won't but either way it doesn't make the system flawed.
60% reciepes are the biggest money (and material) sink in the game. They are only meant to make legit players play longer and non-legit players e-bay more. End of discussion.
you're asking them to do is far more involved than simply saying they'll make craft %ages on an individual basis from now on.
and where's the prob ?
if you fail four or nine or 100 times in a row, it still might be a 60% chance of success. ever flipped a coin?
That's exactly the problem.
No one will ever craft 100 soul bows and if they would, their amount of adena makes we shouldn't worry too much about them.
But people may try 5 6 10 times and get a 0, 10 or 90%.
That's simply [removed].
As written right above, NC, find a money sink that will not rip off some players.
It is not a money sink, it is a profit center for those who can afford to work with it. 60% crafting has always been a major profit thing for those of us who have the patience to accept some failures. When given a choice to craft at 60% or 100% I chose 60% whenever possible, or when crafting for profit. I will do 100% only when necessary. No other game really gives you the risk vs reward that Lineage has to offer. Overenchanting (Both skills and weapons/armor), 60% crafting, even the various Bingo games. Despite the faults that some may have with the system, it does add flavor to the game. If A grade and S grade were 100% recipes, everyone would have it as soon as they hit the levels. Making it 60% gives it a certain "mystique". I like the feeling of accomplishment of succeeding a 60% craft, and I kinda like the hour long sulk when I fail. I dont have great luck with it, but I am pleased when it works.
For the short term, NC really should puts a cap on the number of failed attempts with 60% recs. The cap should be per player, not just item. Or they should do something else so that the average is 60% for evreybody. Or both.
In the long run, they really should go to 100% recs. It takes long enough to get any one rec and parts as it is, why make it worse by having a possibility of failure with the rec?
i'm sorry to hear that your success rate is poor at best, but your puerile comments of not having money because you don't ebay and so forth are unwarranted. just as they don't make the crafting of 11/12 sa crystals easily accessible, the crafting of the items to which they would be attributed should not be easy either.
thats my $0.02
Actually it was worth a lot less than 0.02. And the thread is not about you being able to decide who is childish or not. As we care...
Anyway... Instead of pointing what you think I may miss, try to see what you miss.
60% and the randomization aren't bad by essence. But their implementation is.
I don't freaking care if globally, servers wide, on thousands of tries, the recipes are 60%. What I do care about is that that %age is met on a human level. So when YOU craft at 60% YOU WILL GET 60%. And not 60% if you add your 99% failures to someone else's 99% successes. If you can fail 4 or 9 times in a row, the randomization is bugged because it is not working properly on YOUR human level, on the crafts YOU will make.
Capice ?
Probably not but I'll have tried.
Miz, I think you're a bit confused on the statistics behind the 60% chance thing.
The number of times you have tried has no bearing on your next craft. Each individual one is a 60% chance to succeed. If you try 10 Axes in a row, the 10th one is still 60%. Odds are out of 10 axes, 6 of them should work, but you could just as easily get lucky and have more successes or be unlucky and have more fails.
Take a coin out and flip it 4 times. The odds are you will get 2 heads and 2 tails, but there's actually a pretty good chance you might get 4 tails right in a row.
For the short term, NC really should puts a cap on the number of failed attempts with 60% recs. The cap should be per player, not just item. Or they should do something else so that the average is 60% for evreybody. Or both.
In the long run, they really should go to 100% recs. It takes long enough to get any one rec and parts as it is, why make it worse by having a possibility of failure with the rec?
Then do as with everything else, let someone else take the risk, and pay them for it.
Miz, I think you're a bit confused on the statistics behind the 60% chance thing.
The number of times you have tried has no bearing on your next craft. Each individual one is a 60% chance to succeed. If you try 10 Axes in a row, the 10th one is still 60%. Odds are out of 10 axes, 6 of them should work, but you could just as easily get lucky and have more successes or be unlucky and have more fails.
Take a coin out and flip it 4 times. The odds are you will get 2 heads and 2 tails, but there's actually a pretty good chance you might get 4 tails right in a row.
Ty Big's but it's precisely why I'm criticizing the system.
You know the quality of the random of NCsoft. It's why ppl never put loot on random. Because it does not even its own statistics, even on long time periods.
If it did, a 4 toons 10 hour party in Cruma Tower would have had its member getting about the same amount of mats but it doesn't. So ppl don't use random.
But in crafting A we HAVE TO use random. No choice. But NC's random is buggy and the 60% is impossible to attain to most of the ppl. It doesn't always level to the supposed 60%
I won't and you won't craft 100 A weaps to get one and consider yourself lucky.
So since the use of "randomness" as it is can mean ppl failing ALL THE TIME it has to be pondered.
But in crafting A we HAVE TO use random. No choice. But NC's random is buggy and the 60% is impossible to attain to most of the ppl. It doesn't always level to the supposed 60%
And how do you arrive at that conclusion? When do you "check" if somebody got his 60% or not? After ten attempts? After 100? What you simply do not "get" is that it is perfectly normal, acceptable and in no way a bug if somebody tries five 60% crafts and all fail. In fact I would call it a bug if everybody would end up at exactly 60% success rate for his crafts, because then the system would not be random, but influenced by some behind-the-scenes system. It's like with OEing items. Some people say that the success rate cannot possible be 2/3 for weapons, because they always fail whenever they try to OE. But if you look at that certain censored site with collected OE results, you will see that so far over 2300 weapon OE attempts have been logged, and the calculated success rate from those attempts is 68%, which fits nicely with what NCSoft claims it is. And if they can get it right with the 66% OE chance (apart from not telling people that it is only 50% for jewelry), I give them the benefit of the doubt and say they most likely got it also right with the 60%/70% for crafts.
I'd hate to see some kind of "guaranteed success" just because somebody got unlucky a few times. It should remain what it is right now, 60% or whatever to succeed, and then you roll the dice.
I'd say I'm running very close to the 60/70% mark for A grade crafts, but I have a pretty large sample to pull from.
Like I said. If you flip that coin 4 times expecting it to be 50/50 you are going to be ******, because it won't.
If you flip it 100 times, then you're very likely to end up with it close to 50/50, but even then, my guess is it still won't be.
Same exact thing with crafting A grade. 4 attempts is a very small sample.
I've always said that the economic side of L2 is the most difficult part of this game, and that is proven true with the 60% craft system. It really hurts the individual crafter, because he's not going to have that large sample. Someone who crafts for profit will have taken into account the 60% and will be largely unaffected by it.
It's one of the things that greases the economy though. You as a player have two choices. Work the crafting system to provide items and/or crystals. Or work the mat system (manor/spoil) and sell the mats to the crafter and buy your item already made.
Same exact thing with crafting A grade. 4 attempts is a very small sample.
But it's what most people will do. And half of them will be screwed by a lack of software analysis.
I aggre on all you said but I disaggree when you find it's normal that the casual crafter is hurt way more than the professional one.
Protect the small.
Most people have a supportive clan, are good at making money or ebay to buy these items. :)
I've got a helpful clan and decent moneymaking skills myself (although nothing stellar) - and the only thing I'll craft in A Grade are armours I will spoil my own recipes for.
Our alliance has three BH mains that I know of, and another half dozen or so alts. Get to it.
Yes, I mean - there's no way a legit player could have that much money, right? 70mil would totally break your neck.
And I still think the game does not owe you the 60% success rate, it owes the server the 60% success. It's supposed to be a gamble, making it unlosable in the long run would be stupid.
As I said a few times before: If you don't want to take a risk, gather enough for two crafts, sell, and buy the full item.
Perhaps a warning message could appear prior to crafting or overenchanting, reminding the player one last time that the action they are about to undertake is, in fact, a big risk?
It could add to the suspense and emphasize the risk that so many love about the gambling aspect of Lineage2, in a straightforward way.
I love the way grinding weapons (overenchanting) on Phantasy Star has the screen shake and warning sirens.
I was very lucky that my first and only attempt (never again) to craft an A grade weapon was successful. I had almost every mat I had gathered in the course of leveling at risk, and had I failed, the loss of time would have been absolutely staggering (to me).
I appreciate my weapon all the more because of it, not to sound trite.
Frankly, if the crafting had failed I wouldn't be on the other side of the fence on this issue. I would have quit the game.
The fact that so many people keep going despite disasterous setbacks of this magnitude is admirable, but I am not so dogged. I simply will not trust my luck in this game.
Maybe stop being envious about people who apparently did a better way at acquiring AG legally?
Err.. envious.. in which hat did you find that ? Maybe you should try to find arguments instead of insults ? Or refrain from posting if you don't add anything to the debate?
I'm in full A grade, noob. It's not a whine. It's a debate on the false advertising of 60%. I'm opposed at it being servers wide and leaving some players in the dust. But I'm not the one in the dust. With 3 65+ toons all geared with full A for my main and full B for support classes I don't fit in the category.
Maybe stop being envious about people who apparently did a better way at acquiring AG legally?
Err.. envious.. in which hat did you find that ? Maybe you should try to find arguments instead of insults ? Or refrain from posting if you don't add anything to the debate?
I'm in full A grade, noob. It's not a whine. It's a debate on the false advertising of 60%. I'm opposed at it being servers wide and leaving some players in the dust. But I'm not the one in the dust. With 3 65+ toons all geared with full A for my main and full B for support classes I don't fit in the category.
Learn to read and try to be smart.
LOL now he goes all emo...I'm not the one calling names here. Besides if you are saying such lines as "buying AG helm recipes is only for ebayers" then you just broke your topic yourself.
And if you would have read yourself, I already replied in this topic on an earlier occasion, but of course, you are so angry you probably didn't even see that.
To the poster..
its exactly the same thing as going to a casino and gambling there. Only the casino does not tell you what is the average % of success (which would be much worse then 60% anyways).
Strangely enough, I dont see many people going back to the casino's management to raise a complaint because they lost all their money in a night's play without ever cashing in a single cent.
Ever played Black Jack and said "Hit me!" ?
Maybe stop being envious about people who apparently did a better way at acquiring AG legally?
so angry you probably didn't even see that.
First envious and now angry. I'm not angry lol. Not at all. It's a forum about a game.
You tried to discriminate my post by taxing me of being envious. You started. Now you reap.
I'll say it again with simpler words.
60%, if not checked on small suite of tries, is too hard for most people.
Randomness is buggy if you can often fail so many times in a row.
And it's really happening and it's often. There are numerous accounts.
Simple enough ? Now aggree or disaggree but then move on without trying to put emotions on people frow words you half read with cheap psycho skills.
And fyi I'm still not angry. Would you mistake being blunt for being angry ?
To the poster..
its exactly the same thing as going to a casino and gambling there.
No, you don't need to go to the casino, but you need an A weap and an A armour.
If you don't gamble in L2, you're ripped off by overinflated prices or have to add the your friends' strain to get materials.
Ok, here we go again. You do NOT "NEED" A grade. I've had a B grade weapon from 52 to 73. I did not NEED an Elysian, I WANTED an elysian. I did not NEED Tallum Heavy, I WANTED Tallum Heavy. The difference between A grade and B grade is NOT great enough that for normal grinding you MUST have it.
A grade and S grade only become MUST HAVE items if you are in a PvP clan/alliance. And if you are, I dont know how you have trouble obtaining those items, your clan/alliance should be helping you.
So far I'm 100% on A grade crafts. Last one was on Red8. I heard how unlucky he was so I thought I'd try him. Actually no one else had the recipe I wanted up on the craftshop. :p
He's only unlucky on his own crafts. (And mine - he failed me 4/5 bw helms the other nite. I almost pk'd him.)
My WS is unlucky with his crafts also. I keep a list, which I cant look at right now, but my success is about 42% on 30+ crafts for A and S grade. In the end, I have had to buy much more equipment than I wanted. For example, I failed 3 times on Elysian, so I finally bought it.
Luckily, as a WS, I usually have a steady income. However, I dont craft for profit, because my success rate is too low to make a profit.
I know that is my point something that was suppose to be rare and represent somekind of achievement is common.
It is rare. Most of the first A and S grade weapons on Erica were crafted by farmers and purchased with ebayed adena. That is the heart of the competition in this game.
I remember one guy who wanted to craft A grade fists. He donated the recipe for my book. After looking at what he needed to craft, he ebayed the money and bought some from a farmer. They were the first A garde fists on the server.
The sad thing is, the weapons just do NOT take that long to craft. Materials are there for the getting, just nobody wants to take the time to get them. I mean, 1 hour spent with a near 30 Scavenger in Schuttgart is like 1-200 bones from quest, and 10-15 CBP from spoils. Do an hour a day and you have the bones needed for most A grade crafts in a week or less. Manoring is even more viable now that most of the farmers were banned.
I hear it all the time, people hate playing spoilers. But you know, without spoilers you have a much harder time crafting. Dont rely on farmers to get your materials, go out and get them.
Maybe at first they were rare but at this stage of the game there are more then there should be IMO. Now Miz if you dont think they are suppose to be rare then why do you htink they made them 60% crafts? Plus it has been stated time and again that you could always gather mats to make 2 tries sell them and buy the item outright.
Alot of this game is based on luck period, lets face it even what drops you get while grinding is based on luck. For everything done in the game even killing mobs or getting killed by the mob is based on luck. I can understand you not wanting 60% recs in the game. I have failed numerous A grade crafts and I still dont think we need better % recs or that the system needs changing.
And you do not need B grade, or C grade or D grade. Heck you don't ever need any more equipment that you got when you first created your character. Is it going to be fun leveling on mobs 30 levels lower than your character when you need to earn 100 million exp? Of coure not but it is perfectly viable if excruciatingly slow.
D grade is the normal progression from NG grade, C grade from D grade, B grade from C grade, A grade from B grade and S grade from A grade. There is nothing special or unique about each different grade of equipment, and there is no real reason to make them artificially special or unique, not when the mobs continue to gain extra hp and defense based on a curve created along the lines of expecting a chracter starting to acquire D grade at level 20, be fully equipped in D grade at level 37, start into C grade at 40 and be fully equipped in C grade gear by level 45. The fact that you can still level slowly if surely at level 50 with D grade gear does not mean that C grade gear is now super special and a luxury for only those lucky few carried on the shoulders of the unwilling masses( who would themselves prefer that they were among the lucky few and the lucky few among the masses) but rather that the developers of the game were at least smart enough to realize you might not be able to have acquired full C grade gear either because you chose to continue using nothing but D grade gear or because the market on your server is severely screwed up and so did not make the mob toughness curve very steep.
Indeed it would have been unwise for NC to have made a steep mob toughness curve when they themselves had not yet created or implemented the higher grades of gear to match the level cap. Hence the level cap heading into C1 was 75 even though the highest equipment grade was C, a grade meant for levcel 40 to 51 level characters.
Well I was gone for a year and a few months. When I left all expect for the most part to wait well into their levels to get their higher grade armors. When I returned it appears that level to armor grade is expected. Some of my toons get it right away I sell some stuff and as a clan of players that have played together a very long time we pass things about. I have 2 casters thus since they both can not be up I share out eqipment. Though weapons are soon to be a issue if I want to enchant. Maybe the thought process here of this is not suppose to be a easy gain has been lost somewhere.
Because items are only removed from the game when they are either crushed or failed OEing, it would make a terrible mess of the economy if all crafting were 100%.
More than likely they would just nerf the drop rate on mats in order to insure that items are entering the economy at about the same speed as they are right now.
I kinda like it the way it is, even if it means having some failures.
Gotta remember, this is a clan based game. Big items, and top end stuff are supposed to be clan crafting projects, not individual projects.
It's also worth noting that there's also a possiblity that the 3 failed Drac bows could have just as easily been 3 successes, in which case the crafter would have been a very rich man indeed.
No failed crafts are the ones which cause inflation.
How so? If you fail the craft, you lose all the materials and recipes you put into the crafting but none of your adena. When the total quantity of materials falls but the total supply of currency does not, the price level must rise, and there is inflation.
In general, money sinks will always be abyssmal failures which hurt more than they help. Because they cannot be too high to avoid greatly harming the poorest players who they were designed to help, these money sinks have to be relatively small in scale. But because they are small in scale, they only reduce a small percentage of money from each rich player, but a high percentage from each poor player.
Thank you for the more concise explanation Ellisande. ^^ That's precisely what I meant. Money sinks are things that permanently remove adena from circulation - i.e. things in which you buy from the NPC.
Most notable in L2 are spirit and soul ore, crystals of up to B Grade, and gemstones (in applying SAs and to some degree in crafts). Lesser ones are port, consumable potion/scroll/mammon upgrade and such.
Which is why 60% crafts do not fit the bill. Only a foolish poor player attempts a 60% craft, knowing that he has **** near a 50/50 chance of loosing all his goods.
On the other hand, a wealthy player will be more than willing to take the risk, knowing that if it fails he'll be just fine and can try again.
The caveat is, if the poor play gets lucky, he may become a wealthy player, and if even the wealthiest of players has a string of bad luck he may find himself in the poor house.
It is a gamble. If you can't afford to gamble, don't do it. 60/40 is a fairly high risk if you can only afford one shot. If you can afford 10 though, it's almost a guaranteed money maker.
From the beginning I've been arguing that A grade should not be hard to acquire because it is nothing more than normal equipment progression. But for some reason, people see that little A, and they go "Oh shoot, I need to be the only guy who can wear this so I can feel special whenever I'm in front of someone who doesn't have it". Maybe we should replace every letter with a number instead, and then the idea becomes much more obvious.
Let us call NG grade 1, D grade 2, C grade 3, D grade 4, A grade 5, and S grade 7. Where is 6? Its stuck in the middle between A and S grade. It is supposed to exist because the mobs are given hp and defense between levels 68 and 76 as if some mid grade of equipment between A and S did exist, and if you follow the equipment progression, one should exist. Butr that isn't really relevent.
Now at level 1 you start with grade 1.
Once you hit level 2 you start to equipself yourself with grade 2.
After finishing your 2nd class transfer you equip yourself with grade 3.
12 more level and you equip yourself in grade 4.
9 additional levels and you equip yourself in grade 5.
Another 6 levels and you equip yourself with 6.
Another 6 levels and you equip yourself with grade 7.
Another 6 levels and you equip yourself with grade 8.
Another 6 levels and you equip yourself with grade 9.
Another 6 levels and you equip yourself with grade 10.
Another 6 levels and you equip yourself with grade 11.
Etc., etc., etc.
It is a gamble. If you can't afford to gamble, don't do it. 60/40 is a fairly high risk if you can only afford one shot. If you can afford 10 though, it's almost a guaranteed money maker.
That's false BigH.
We've seen numerous count of such failures. WIth ten tries, you'll be lucky if you break even.
And that's where it's flawed.
Random is only working in series too large for the average player.
The 60% should be true on small suites of tries. Like random should be evenly fair for loot distribution.
The adena doesn't disappear though Miz - and that's the whole definition of an adena sink. An adena sink isn't shifting money from player A to player B (that has nothing to do with inflation after all), but moving money from player A to an NPC, where it then disappears - that's what causes deflation: Less adena in circulation.
I dunno, seems like the 60% is pretty much right on the money too me.
My last 6 A grade weapon crafts were 3xTallum Blade, DLE, Desp Staff, Elemental Swd. Of those 6 crafts, the Desp, Elemental, and one tallum blade succeeded. That's 50%.
The way I did them though.. first the Elemental and Desp at the same time, both worked. 100% WOOT!!!
Then I did the 3 Tallums and DLE. Only 1 Tallum worked.. 25% grrr.
Comes out about the same either way.. although I would have preferred if one of those successes had been the DLE. What can ya do!!
It doesn't matter if you craft 100 items, on the 101st your chance of success is 60%. Even if the first 100 fail, your chance is still 60%. Even if the first 100 work, your still looking at 60%.
If they changed it so that there was some type of guaranteed success algorithm, people would just exploit it and ruin the economy.
But wouldn't having less of the Mats in circulation also inflate their price, and the prices of the completed products that people who won't take the risk to craft pay for?
The adena doesn't disappear though Miz - and that's the whole definition of an adena sink. An adena sink isn't shifting money from player A to player B (that has nothing to do with inflation after all), but moving money from player A to an NPC, where it then disappears - that's what causes deflation: Less adena in circulation.
Read second part of my post again.
mats = money.
buying the mats is a transfer as I said, failing is a sink
before craft : 80k
after craft : 40k
It is a money sink, even if it's a two strokes move
Uhm... I read the second part of your post. Most of the things you do during a craft do not destroy adena - they move it from your inventory's to someone else's.
That is not a money sink - it only moves adena instead of destroying it.
The only things that will stop inflation are destroyed adena or added materials - more success with 60% crafts (which would doubtlessly be reflected in the carefully calculated recipe requirements) will do a little more towards dropping the value of full items, but that's through being less of a material sink, not through being more of a money sink.
Yup, and if we sink materials but not adena then the price on materials goes up.
For A grade and S grade, pretty much 0 adena gets removed from the economy when crafting. The reason is that AA is used to buy the gemstones, as opposed to lower crafting grades, where you buy them from the shop.
That's false BigH.
We've seen numerous count of such failures. WIth ten tries, you'll be lucky if you break even.
And that's where it's flawed.
Random is only working in series too large for the average player.
The 60% should be true on small suites of tries. Like random should be evenly fair for loot distribution.
Just did 13 A/B 60% crafts Sunday morning, was successful in 7/13 = 53%. I've done a few of these 'batch' crafts in the past, and the results are pretty consistent 50-60%. I used to do single item crafts too, but boy did it suck when I failed SOVx2 and a Dragon Slayer. What I do now is that I spend a few months gathering materials through manor, shops, spoil, etc to get around 10 or so craft, then craft them all. From my calculation of material cost, I find that I barely break even. My suggestion is that if you can't take the risk of failing a 60% craft, just sell the material and save up a bit to buy the item (you're be surprise how much your materials are worth in the market). You can always bargain with a saler, but you can't bargain with a 60% success algorithm. Take a statistic class or read up on the subject, and you'll see that the current 60% craft and OE system in L2 is correct.
Here's a silly way to hopefully convince you that random only works for large numbers: If your very first craft succeeded, you're 100% on a 60% craft...do you owe the system 40%? Of course not, you got lucky. What about if you never craft again? Taking this example one more step, since you succeeded the first craft, should your second craft automatically fail? No, that's 50%, but if the 2nd also succeeded, you're still at 100%....as you can see you can't get to the 60% number without a large sample of success and failures in NO PARTICULAR ORDER (random). Else the system can be exploited. The system, as cruel as it is, is fair.
Put in:
p = .6 (our chance of succeeding at an A grade craft)
n = number of attempts to craft
After it calculates, it shows the probability of each possible result.
For example, I told it 4 tries:
The probability of getting a number of successes:
0 - 2.56% chance
1 - 15.26% chance
2 - 34.56% chance
3 - 34.56% chance
4 - 12.96% chance
This is not at all obvious to me when I just think 60% chance. If you make 4 tries, you still have a 2.5% chance of getting nothing. That's kind of harsh.
Fortunately, it's 60/40 instead of 50/50.. that skews the results so that it is much more likely that all 4 of your crafts would succeed rather than all 4 fail.
Pretty neat little tool.
To make it even more fun, it has that button "sample from this distribution" and number of samples. This is how many times you want to try your experiement at the top. For example, I told it to try the 4 crafts at once 50 times. You can keep clicking it. Even though it generates random numbers, you'll see that sometimes you get lucky, and other times you do not.
Pretty neat for a Fri afternoon.
Oh.. and I increased the number of tries to see how many attempts I would have to make for the chance of not getting a single success to hit be less than 0.00% (less than one hundredth of a percent chance).. it was 11. Even at 11 tries, you're not guaranteed to get your item crafted, but the chances are extremely small that you wouldn't get at least one success.