I apologize for my ignorance of any of this however I have become relatively frustrated with the A grade crafting as of late. I have attempted many crafts at the 60% level and have come to the conclusion that there may be some oddity occuring.
My last 10 60% crafts have been 3 Kris Daggers, 3 Majestic Circlets, 2 Majestic Gloves, 1 Armor of Nightmare, and 1 Great Sword. ALL HAVE FAILED.
It makes me think of another game I played for quite some time ... Asherons Call. In the early stages of the game the aggro mobs were supposed to attack a random player in a group it turned out that there was a "Flag" that would throw this off and the mob would consistently attack a single player out of a group.
My question is .. Is there a possibility that there may be a similar problem with the crafting in L2? ... Where the 60% recipes have a liklihood of working far better than 60% for certain chars and far worse than 60% for other chars... It is just extremely hard for me to believe that of 10 tries in a row with 60% recipes ALL fail. Not even 1 craft.
Please let me know if anyone else is experiencing this. My wife and I have been playing for over 2 years now and really want our A grade gear and this is becomming more and more frustrating as the hunting takes so much time to gather the comps just to be denied again and again. A grade is only 60% so we dont have much of a choice as we dont have the 100M to go buy the helms we need.
Thank you for any comments by all, but I am interested in any GMs that may have a comment on this pecularity.
the random in L2 is what most ppl call "korean random"
we use that tern to describe the fact that more often then not you will get multiple fails or suceeds in a row
one of the statistics guys will prolly pop in and give their thoughts on the matter
and yeah 60% in L2 is 60%
if you fail 4 crafts you can bet somewhere at sometime someone else will succeed 6 crafts to balance it out
I apologize for my ignorance of any of this however I have become relatively frustrated with the A grade crafting as of late. I have attempted many crafts at the 60% level and have come to the conclusion that there may be some oddity occuring.
Before all the "blah-blah-60% per attempt" people jump in and give their usual speil, I'll give you the 'realistic' explanation.
1)Observed VS Expected results for Overenchanting (As noted by another site.) have noted that while weapon OE roughly matches the stated %, armor/Jewelry do NOT. (Being ~10% less than expected.)
Thus either there is a 'bug' in certain random events or the 'stated' chances may be wrong. Given the nature of certain bugs that have (re!)occurred both in translation as well as in the game engine I suspect both may be occuring in various random events.
2)Being an MMO and knowing the limitations on computers generating random results and doing so for *every* event in game suggests strongly that 'roll results' may be 'pre-generated' and then distributed afterwards. This can result in 'abnormal' streaks of luck...good or bad.
Thus if you had 6 fails in a row, it's highly likely that two other people had ~5 successes in a row if the stated chance of success is 60%
This is so true, a perfect example of this is go to the MRT and watch a few races. You can foolishly belive the stats they give you to win are accurate. But as u can see half way in the rase the favorit monsters seem to slow down and the winning monster jumps half the track in a sec. Is this random occurances or are racing games been preordained.
There has to be some sort of modifinying randomizer algoritm that prevents sure things from happening. Perhaps once a certain threshold number is reach either for failed or sucessfull crafts. This algorithm kicks in and starts droping the hammer to keep 60 percent true.
Best thing to do if u start to get a lot of sucessful risk crafts take a small break so it evens out on someone else.
1)Observed VS Expected results for Overenchanting (As noted by another site.) have noted that while weapon OE roughly matches the stated %, armor/Jewelry do NOT. (Being ~10% less than expected.)
Thus either there is a 'bug' in certain random events or the 'stated' chances may be wrong. Given the nature of certain bugs that have (re!)occurred both in translation as well as in the game engine I suspect both may be occuring in various random events.
2)Being an MMO and knowing the limitations on computers generating random results and doing so for *every* event in game suggests strongly that 'roll results' may be 'pre-generated' and then distributed afterwards. This can result in 'abnormal' streaks of luck...good or bad.
Thus if you had 6 fails in a row, it's highly likely that two other people had ~5 successes in a row if the stated chance of success is 60%
In short...the game doesn't "play fair".
statistics guy!!!!!
see i told ya man you start talking about numbers and these guys just show up out of nowhere :P
A grade is only 60% so we dont have much of a choice as we dont have the 100M to go buy the helms we need.
On what server are A Grade Helms 100Mil still? On Gustin you can get Tallum Helms for 24mil and Majestic helms for 45mil (if you look hard enough) and ive seen S Grade helms for 50 mil, so what server are you playing on?
A grade is only 60% so we dont have much of a choice as we dont have the 100M to go buy the helms we need.
On what server are A Grade Helms 100Mil still? On Gustin you can get Tallum Helms for 24mil and Majestic helms for 45mil (if you look hard enough) and ive seen S Grade helms for 50 mil, so what server are you playing on?
Just pure luck. I failed my first A grade craft(SOM) and I really frustrated.. A few months later I decided to give a go into tateosian crafting and I got 4/4 rings 7/9 necklaces.+2 from what I should expect..
Keep trying bro :)
I agree with pain's post. You can get very lucky or very unlucky. I have tried four A-grade crafts so far. All failed (2 weapons in a row and 2 70% jewel recipes!). I tried one overenchant (B-duals to go +4) and failed too (that hurt me most at that time).
The real issue here is: how much a legit player can afford to loose before he gets overboard? Working really hard (manoring, questing, playnig alts) gathering materials and money and then loosing all because of "bad luck" is not rewarding exactly. When it fails what you do? Stay in your old equipment. Ok. For what? To work more and then experience the same results? I gathered enough materials for 2 weapons (of the same type) and tried to craft in order to increase my chances. But this prooved inadequate, since both failed. If I had a third, I might have failed it too. To fully equip in A-grade, you need to have between 10-17 items (weapons, armor, jewels). Atempting to craft even some of them can be a really tricky business. Of course there is always the option of buying the items. This unfortunately makes the cost go really up, sometimes almost twice than the crafting cost. So what are the real options for legitimate players?
1) Stay in your B's doing quests, gathering mats and hope that future crafts will be luckier (what the hell, you only need 10-17 succeses) or you will get rich somehow (maybe win in the mob races?)
2) Play several other toons to make money (NC really loves this option). This helps, but doesn't solve all your problems.
3) Go illegitimate (there is ebay? who? where? when?)
This topic keep recycling, i doubt this thread will answer the question in any better way than any previous attemp.
I have failed and i have succeded many crafts. Its a risk, thats all you have to know. Either you make it or you dont. I have a hard time believing in mystery teories.
If you feel that you fail to many crafts, then dont craft. Make money by selling your mats and recipes instead. I craft when i can afford to gamble and buy the item when i cant afford the risk. This takes longer yes, but somehow i usually succed more when its not so important.
So what are the real options for legitimate players?
I think this drives right to the heart of L2's *BAD* design issues regarding the drop/spoil tables and Manor....they are just too **** low. And I'm not talking about the Adena!
Imagine if you were able to afford trying to OE your gear *while you are in that grade* just because crafting was cheap and easy compared to buying it from an NPC. (Or even afford to 'attempt' the >100% crafts without bankrupting yourself if they fail....)
The ridiculously low drop rates combined with lack of spoils on key parts alone mean your FAR more likely to reach the next grade of gear before you can even think of making something you could use *now*. Example: My current project is making a set of (mid C) Dwarven Chain Mail...It appears I will need to delevel multiple times just to have enough to make ONE full set. The BH is now L50 and still leveling faster than I can get the drop only stuff.
(So far all I've been able to craft is the shirt!)
This escalator effect doesn't even slow down until you reach A grade, despite the 'grind' of the levels before that.
..and when it comes down to it this is the primary reason for L2's chronic bot/ebay problems.
Some of us just assume we are going to have miserable luck to start with.
Assume the one thing you really need to work oin the craft will fail and that person in your clan who has had 3 or more of his A-grade set drop to him this week will succeed nearly 100%...
I don't really think it's any programming error... it's just me and my (lack of) luck.
I don't see anything wrong with the craft in L2, even when my friend failed 200M in crafts in once.
It's not the % chance to succeed a non-100% craft that hurts...it's the complete inability to aquire materials and recipes within your grade/playtime that is hurting. And instead of fixing what is broken like spoils, NC keeps "bandaiding" things by adding things like Mammon/Luxury shop/Quests.
Try and craft a D or C grade weapon, or full set of armor...or even B grade. (These days)
In short, as the average level of the server population rises, the cost of (non-Lux shop/Mammonized) gear rises almost exponentially, compared to the potential adena of the person needs the gear the most. (newer players) The only real 'limit' on the cost of that gear is the fact that there are so **** few 'new players'. (Driven away by this inability to get basic gear and the bots others use to get around this inability...)
It's almost to the point where I expect B grade to start exceeding S grade in price in the not-so-distant future...