Just putting this theory ive had tickling the back of my head for years out for discussion.
Every find that some toons OE some things better than others? Or anyways, SEEM to OE better?
Im thinking that when you roll a new toon, some hidden roll is made also for that toon and it is: *% better at OE a grade or *% better OE weapons or *% better Crafting S grade and so on..
I once asked a /gm to turn up my luck as i had failed 4 a helm crafts back when helms were 200+m each. he said there is no luck thing and blah blah you know.. then i ask well then which toon do i have that will craft the helm successfully? i was on my SH while talking to him and this is what he said "im sorry prophet, i cant help you with your problem" :eek:
He told me to use my prophet toon on my account!! (sortof) i never tested as shortly after this helm prices dropped and i just bought one.
Im making a +6 dc robe set atm and have now failed 16 helms, most at +5, my alts are being all stripped as i cant make enough adenas on my buy/sell dorfs to keep up with my impaitent attempts.
Should i switch toons to OE the helm? Does it even matter? Im i out to lunch with this theory? Will the Cubs ever win the penant?
it is true that there are....certain forces in this game that may find you unfavorable.....the "l2 gods" we'll call them. there's no way to please them, no way to even contact them, but they are around. the same beings that spawn those aggro mobs right next to your healer and other things....
Yes, I definately think that some toons OE better than others. But the reason for that is more likely because of a bad random engine. Some people seem to be affected more than others though. It wouldnt surprise me in the least if the random engine used a seed value from your character. That certainly would explain a lot.
I only know that I can never count on luck in this game. For example I fail opening fish so much that it's not even worth fishing. The success rate is somewhere around 25-30% I can fail opening fish 10 times in a row. And when I roll a die it sometimes behaves anything but random. Once my die even turned up 8 ones in a row. The odds of that happening in real life is virtually non existant. And as for overenchanting... I'm considering giving up my bladedancer because:
My oe history on my bladedancer:
dual set 1: attempting +4 fail (d duals)
dual set 2: attempting +4 success (d duals)
dual set 2: attempting +5 fail (d duals)
dual set 3: attempting +4 success (d duals)
dual set 4: attempting +4 fail (c duals)
dual set 5: attempting +4 success (c duals)
dual set 6: attempting +4 fail (b duals)
dual set 7: attempting +4 fail (The latest attemp was a grade tall*dama duals X.X)
It's simple. Probability is such a trivial part of maths.
It is possible that one toon can attempt to OE 1,000,000 items and fail every single one.
It is also possible that another toon can attempt to OE 1,000,000 items and succeed every single one.
The chances of both of those happening are exactly the same.
You do or you don't.
Bingo. That's entirely correct and it's so simple I don't understand how some people miss it.
Personally, I broke 5 Homu in a row - 4 going to +4.
I think the RNG needs a little tweaking. Seriously, if someone is OEing and breaks 3 in a row, I wouldn't mind giving them a freeby on the fourth try.
But it's not only that, the chance for breaking is so huge that you have a good chance that the RNG will roll something similar on the next go. You can test this with very complicated algorithms (Try C/C++ code) and you'll see that even though the RNG is "somewhat random", nothing is stopping it from picking the numbers out of that group several times in a row - regardless of the seed. This is called "streaks", and you can either get good ones, or bad ones. But a good RNG algorithm will be coded properly to disallow streaks of positive or negative values (good or bad) for any length of time.
RNG algorithms like that are usually tested on extremely large numbers of test cases. For example, they'll generate 10,000 randome numbers and test the consistency of the RNG, but no user in the game is going to have their number pulled out of such a large pool.
But, 33.3- chance to break is a HUGE chance. 2/3 chance of success is very narrow by comparison (cause the benefits from OE is < the detriments of breaking it).
I hope they didn't use rnd() for doing OE chances in Lineage 2 :p
Well you guys are saying you are very unlike. It wouldnt surpsise me if some1 came here and told how lucky he got doing 2x +16 homus in 1 go..
You fail one , the other guy gets 2 successes , he fails one , u suceedd too and so on.. At least thats how I see it..
Nah actually I was lying about all that percentage [censored].
To be succesful when you OE you have to go Dion shrine. Talk to every npc there clockwise starting from the high priest. Chose quest on each one then close the dialogue. Then dance 20 times. Run around the inside counterclockwise 7 times starting from the exit to the balcony. After that run directly to the high priest. Dance another 20 times and finally do the Bow emote.
I know math is supposed to be math and programming is suposed to be constant.....
but the FACT is that my BD has oe'd 11 of 16 attempts.
My WS has been about 1 of 3....my SH has been less than 1 of 3....my orc raider is less than 50% as well.
When my BD unequips the weapon, kneels in warehouse in dion, and pauses for a count of 4 before clicking OE completion----it usually works.
but the FACT is that my BD has oe'd 11 of 16 attempts. My WS has been about 1 of 3....my SH has been less than 1 of 3....my orc raider is less than 50% as well.
When my BD unequips the weapon, kneels in warehouse in dion, and pauses for a count of 4 before clicking OE completion----it usually works.
This is called "streaks", and you can either get good ones, or bad ones.
You forgot my left nut after kneeling. That's why it only works 11/16
Code can be used to demonstrate math calculations and theory in 99-100 percent of the time, but the reason why I said I hope they didn't use rnd() is becuase that standard function is well known for being subpar as the base of any RNG of worth. :) That would just be negligible coding, i.e. a developer that needs to be fired.
But, what the player above me said about probability is correct. You can fail every single OE you attempt and NCSoft can say "working as intended" and you have no choice but to believe them due to the laws of probability.
People tend to think that 1 in 3 chance means that you should win 66% of the rolls, but all it means is that the odds are somewhat in you favor. That all depends on how you look at it, though.
For the amount of time, effort, and adena it takes to buy/craft weapons and gear in this game, however, the odds are rather switched. 33% chance to waste possibly hundreds of hours of your time and/or millions of your adena is HUGE IMO.
This is complicated more with the fact that a Blessed Enchant won't break you weapon, but can drop the OE level down to 0. Maybe lose an enchant if fail, but going from +10 to +0 is as good as a break IMO. Mind as well find a dwarf to crush it and start from scratch again...
Unless all my characters have this special key to them, it is completely random. Ive played a certain character on one server and success rate was around 75%. Same character name on another server, around 33%. Ive also enchant on probably 15 different characters and all seem to be around the same %. Each character has done at least 10 oe's.
It is possible that one toon can attempt to OE 1,000,000 items and fail every single one.
It is also possible that another toon can attempt to OE 1,000,000 items and succeed every single one.
The chances of both of those happening are exactly the same.
Actually you're wrong about both having the same chances. You have much more chances of succeeding the 1'000'000 enchants than of failing 1'000'000, because you would have (0.67)^1'000'000 vs (0.33)^1'000'000.
But you are right that it's possible (but improbable) to fail a million in a row, just as it's possible (but improbable) to succeed a million.
Weirdly enough in L2, though, the improbable happens way too often. I call this Korean random instead of true random ^^
About the bless enchants, yeah i prolly could use them but the are 20m each, 15 if im lucky. A DC helm and 6 ea-a is anywhere from 26-40m. So i figure it is cheaper to keep breaking them untill i get the +6 rather than to use B-enchants. (remember, i may have to do this 1 million times as you pointed out)
It just seems very odd to me that people hear NC say 2/3 chance and believe them. "well its in the game tips man" lol. I will start writing down all the game tips that come up at game start-up that are totally wrong for you.
Where are all the +6 helms anyways? I saw a +6 dc helm for sale for 850m. its the only one ive seen other than the one i traded for a boss jewel. Why the hell are the so rare? Its is only 3 enchants to risk!
How many +6-16 weapons you see out there ? So Why is armor and jewels more rare?
I know NC says 2/3. But like my OP says that doesnt SEEM to be the case with some toons. I have OE 200 times, probably more on bartz. I dont dance around like a chicken in the church or anything, i enchant all right there and right after another. i mean, 2/3 chance, you dont have to wait for anything right?
Could NC *gasp* not be telling the whole truth about OE
Could NC *gasp* not be telling the whole truth about OE
More likely enchanting (armor) is bugged and in typical behaviour the developers deny any sort of thing until either A)They fix it and ignore the fact you've been saying that for a long time. B)Players in Korea amass enough real data and complain loudly enough that the developers are forced to fix the bugs.
It just seems very odd to me that people hear NC say 2/3 chance and believe them. "well its in the game tips man" lol. I will start writing down all the game tips that come up at game start-up that are totally wrong for you.
Dude I've failed every single 60% craft I've done up to now and probably broke every weapon I tried to OE going from +3 to +4. I still believe it's 2/3 cause I understand this simple concept called probabilities. Ever studied statistics at school? After a trememdrous amount of tries (not just hundreds. you need thousands or millions) you would clearly see it is 2/3 but before you get there you're gonna get good and bad streaks. You succeed a lot of times in a row? Well cool it's not impossible but not magical either. What happens is that no one is gonna try enough enchants to prove that 2/3 chance. Heck I even played heads or tails just for the hell of it to prove nothing is revelant when you only do it a few times. I did 20 throws 3 times.
OH MY GOD what the [censored] it's not 1/2 ! And I hope you all agree heads or tails is 1/2 chances. As you can see I got one good streak on heads and one on tails and one was closer to 1/2.
Another good example. You ever played tetris? Well in this fun game you have as much chance of getting one kind of block as any other. Yet sometimes you seem to be always getting the same **** blocks. That's when Tetris 2 comes into play. You have a graph of how many blocks of each kind you got during the game. Yep sometimes you get a **** streak of the same blocks and it sucks but guess what happens when you're at level 10 and that you got thousands of blocks up to now? Well I be ****ed. The graph is pretty much even. HOW COULD THIS BE? Seems like I've been getting tons of of those cubes !! People base their beliefs on streaks they get. You get a good one on your prophet. Oh my gosh everyone use your prophets they're teh ****zz when you OE.
Do whatever you want. Dance, sing, run around. Log and try on a "good" character. In the end it's all gonna be 2/3.
Heads or tails is only 1/2 chances if the quarter spins around the same amount of times each flip and the result is totally random. I can flip a quarter in heads and tails and catch it at the right time to make sure I win. It's not hard, either.
Computer Generated Randome numbers and algorithms are the best test-cases of randomeness because they can be alot closer to true random than heads or tails (due to being able to tweak the algorithms, provide for certain sa***uards, etc.). Heads or tails is a horrible example, though. Lineage 2 isn't flipping a coin, and the odds aren't 50/50. Losing 66% of the time when your chances are 50% [to lose] are one thing. Losing 66% of the time when you chances are 33% [to lose] is another thing. Thats way out of the range of tolerance.
But in essense I agree with you, because RNGs are streaky it's somewhat of a bad idea to have a game rely so much on it - when everything costs alot of time and money.
Oh well. At least the farmers are still here to provide us with cheap armor, jewels, and weapons (Majestic Jewels at 1/2 price FTW!).
I first tried my hand at OEing a few weeks ago. I was striking out badly (5 failed attempts to hit +4 on SOMs)
I swore that I would never try OEing ever again...
(2 weeks later...)
I went and tried my hand at OEing again.
Ended up with +4 SLS*SLS, +6 107's x 2, +4 AOBA, and +4 Kat*Kat.
In some 10 attempts at using Enchant Weapon scrolls above +3, I ended up with Crystals only once.
I suppose that I was due for some good luck finally, after my bad streak a few weeks back... but I will say that there was something different that I did this time that I did not do before.
I wore Formal Wear when I did the enchanting the 2nd time around. I don't know if Formal Wear made me more lucky, but I figured it could not hurt. So, fluke or not, randon or not, I am going to wear my wedding dress everytime I try OEing from now on.
Oeing on weapons is different on each type also if u look at stats so your 68% does not go over well and it also dosnt break down into what broke where, its not all the same
Trying to OE A Grade Weapons is a waste of cash since not many people have the cash to buy them, unless they are "independently wealthy".
Well, sellers never ask where the adena comes from. :)
Personally I think it's a waste, either way.
A BOMT/SOM+3 will you get any nuker through A grade easily. No need to go higher than +3 at all. If someone wants the cool glow, they should buy/farm for a lifestone. Don't bother with paying 7M - 11M for multiple EWA's when they'd have to go significantly higher than +10 before they stop 2 shotting most mobs their level. Really not worth it.
Fighter weapons are no better. In order to do more noticeable damage than a +3 Soul Bow, you'd have to risk no less than 4 more enchants. So if you have a +3 Soul Bow, you'd have to go to +7 before you really noticed a difference, in terms of the damage to mobs. And guess what: you're probably still killing in the same number of hits as you did at +3. Not worth it.
For fighter types, I think it's best to do everything you can to make sure that you increase your crit chance, since MORE CRITS make leveling less of a pain. No, you won't get that from an EWA.
If people want to OE A grade, do it for the rush, and not for anything else. You'll never get "fair asking price" for a highly OE weapon.
i think it should be a 25% chance to break from +3 to +4, then it can go up by 2% each enchant until it stops at 33% just to make it a bit more fair for dual users
i think it should be a 25% chance to break from +3 to +4, then it can go up by 1% each enchant until it stops at 30% just to make it a bit more fair for dual users
I like it the way it is. But I've never had any problems OE'ing, and I know when to stop.
You can get a Spiritual Eye for almost 50 mil less than an SoM and Enchant it to +3. Same M.Atk as a base SoM and you're set for A Grade IMO. Price > Fashion when you also have to buy a 90-100M Robe Set and Jewels that cost 50M or more.
You can get a Spiritual Eye for almost 50 mil less than an SoM and Enchant it to +3. Same M.Atk as a base SoM and you're set for A Grade IMO.
If I were on a budget and had SE buffs around the clock, I'd use ANY 152 m.atk weapon. That should be sufficient to 2-shot most greens at A grade. Most folks go for the "extra damage during PVP" of A grade weapons, but since most of your time is in PVE, it's really not worth it. And let's not even get into the cost of getting an SA on the A grade weapon. Think of the savings.
Price > Fashion when you also have to buy a 90-100M Robe Set ...
I was in Avadon for a loooong time before getting my full DC Set, even though I could afford to buy DC outright. And that was when the helmets alone were going for 100M+ adena each. Craft is the way to go, even though the prices have dropped dramatically.
...and Jewels that cost 50M or more.
Craft these, too. The recipes are 70% success and you can get the recipes and jewel parts through quests in Aden. Worst case scenario, set up an overnight buy shop for the jewel parts. I can almost guaranty you that some farmer will fill your bill by the next morning.
Each weapon has a certain enchant is gets to before being destroyed.
Lets just listen to this a little bit, i've collectivly spent about 5 billion-7 billion adena enchanting in the past 2 1/2 years on retail servers (Kain/Franz)
One of the more popular weapons ive done, roughly 500 darkscreamers id say in my life, lets use them as an example.
The scrolls are just the tool you use to "unlock" the next level of enchant on your weapon. If the weapon is a +10 weapon, then it will succeed until +10, then blow going +11 100%. Why do you think +16 is so hard to get 15->+16? It is not 66%, it is a number "set" into the weapon, more often then not the weapon is mearly a +15, so it crystalizes.
Just this week I made 2x +12 Darkscreamers, 4x +13 Darkscreamers, x1 +14 Darkscreamer.
So the EWD/EWC/EWB/EWA/EWS are just the catalyst to turn the weapon +1 more.
How do I base this? Example again, I went to buy some darkscreamers, I bought 2. Each darkscreamer I was able to stairstep enchant from 1->+13, so thats 10 overenchants per darkscreamer, 20 overenchants. If it was a 66% enchant success "rate" as it says, I just did it 20 times... mmm its like rolling a die "1/2/3/4" 20 times. Not highly possible, go try it.
Considering I have done this on MULTIPLE occasions I dont think this is how its done, I prefer my theory, and thru trial and error I think im right :P
Feel free to prove me wrong though, I want some proof though, dont bullshiit me.
EDIT: Someone asked about Armor being difficult to enchant... mage weapons too. Both have very decreased perimeters when it comes to enchanting.
They are both set to blow at a lower +, or you would see +15 armor, +15 SOM acumen. I'm sure you understand me.
There are aviable C1 server files; C4 PTS too (correct me if im wrong). Read big book about asm, and try prove ur theory.
I personaly dont think programers made super-duper complex OE sytem.
Btw, there is no place for max possible weapon/armor/jew OE value in L2 server database.
You're not going to be able to prove or disprove your theory based solely on observance of the results. I could come up with a thousand different theories that all result in the same thing, but that doesn't make them right.
For example, my OE success rate on Saturdays is around 80%, while on Sundays it's only 40%. Prove me wrong that the code isn't based on what day of the week the OE is done.
The fact that you got two weapons to +12 or whatever in a row could mean one of two things. You got lucky on your string of enchants, or you got lucky on getting two weapons that were intended to go to +12. (Or you did the enchants on Saturday). Either way, the odds are the same.
Personally, I like jkoster's theory. That model fits well with my personal experience in OE'ing and 60% crafting.
You're not going to be able to prove or disprove your theory based solely on observance of the results. I could come up with a thousand different theories that all result in the same thing, but that doesn't make them right.
For example, my OE success rate on Saturdays is around 80%, while on Sundays it's only 40%. Prove me wrong that the code isn't based on what day of the week the OE is done.
The fact that you got two weapons to +12 or whatever in a row could mean one of two things. You got lucky on your string of enchants, or you got lucky on getting two weapons that were intended to go to +12. (Or you did the enchants on Saturday). Either way, the odds are the same.
Personally, I like jkoster's theory. That model fits well with my personal experience in OE'ing and 60% crafting.
Well, its just my observations personally.. but I dont think i just "got lucky" as ive done that with 2+ DS's many many times. Many months ago, at one point I had stairstepp enchanted 4 ds's to 14/14/15/15, from 0 of course, explain that one?
I dunno i do not think the set 2/3 success rate is true, maybe its not my way either with the enchant limit set into the weapon when its created, but I would like to know :x
There is an observed OE rate of 67.9% with just over 3000 samples taken according to a site which has tracked them. How can you argue that the rate isn't 2/3?
At this point it really doesn't matter if the rate is built into the enchants or the weapon. The end result is still the same. And if the end result is the same, then you're not going to be able to discover the method unless you look at the code.
Congrats on OE'ing all your Dark Screamers. Myself, I've been lucky on DG only, having made several +8's and a few +7's with very few going kaboom. But on all other grades, I'm 0/many.
I have long thought what Crest said is correct: that each weapon is preset to blow at a certain level. This # is input into the weapon at creation. That is far easier than the continually spinning binary program that would have to run each time someone oe's. It also is the easiest way to explain why there are huge runs on numbers, as Crest explained. For example, I once blew 5 straight weapons going from +3 to +4. At 66% that is less than a half-percent chance (i.e., 99.5% chance that would not happen). However, it makes sense if I simply happened to make a number of weapons that were not preset to allow an oe. It also makes sense as to the many people who have noted the great difficulty going from particular number A to B (for example 6>7, 9>10 are a few). I guess we will never know for sure, but interesting to ponder anyway . . . .
Each weapon has a certain enchant is gets to before being destroyed.
This simply is not true.
How do I know this? Because I've enchanted 5 weapons to +16, and one other to +17. Now what are the odds that one person would have somehow stumbled upon that many weapons which were guaranteed to "unlock" all the way to +16? Not very likely at all.
It's pure luck of the draw, folks. But it's still good odds, no matter how you look at it.
You need to remember that the OE attempts are not connected in any way. Each one is an individual 66% chance. No previous enchants affect that.
But they ARE connected. The more times an OE attempt is made, the larger your sample becomes. And as your sample size increases, the closer the observed results MUST come to their stated chance, or else the stated chance is FALSE. (%^nth)
Attributing success or failure to someone else does not work. Distribution among your samplers must remain as random as the %. You cannot have a 2/3 chance but implement that as 2 (specific) people always succeed and 1 always fails and state that 'all chances' are the same. Because that chance is then 100% for two people and 0% for the third and NOT 2/3 for all three.
Yes, you can have streaks of success/failures....but the length of those streaks must correspond to the stated %chance. If a streak becomes 'too long' it reveals a significant weakness in the coded algorithm or distribution that is not random.
So, you're saying that if the first OE is 66%, the second should be something else, even tho the system always uses 66%? I view each and every time as a single attempt, where you have 66%.
Same for crafts.
Dont you agree that when you use Enchant scroll, it always has the same chance of failing or working?
I'mm now at 21 DC helms blown up and none went +6. Hows that for a bad streak.... I mean come on I only need to succeed 3 enchants.. I bet if they were DS I was OE I'd have many +6... The system IS flawed somehow, I dont know how but it IS.
sigh... I am single handedly driving DC helm prices up on my server ><
So, you're saying that if the first OE is 66%, the second should be something else, even tho the system always uses 66%? I view each and every time as a single attempt, where you have 66%.
Same for crafts.
Dont you agree that when you use Enchant scroll, it always has the same chance of failing or working?
NO.
If your chance at any one result is 1/3 to fail, then the chance to fail twice in a row is 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9. Now take that farther, let's say you fail 6 in a row. That would be 1/3^6th chance (1/729 = .0014) of it happening. The chance of each is still the same, but when taken as a sample the chance of win/loss streaks should be taken as a function of the base chance as much as the actual split on results. For example, given a 25% Chance of failure on 1000 chances which results in a 'perfect percentage' (250 fails) you would not seriously expect that those failures to come in 5 groups of 50 consecutive failures each would you?
Sure it might be possible for some random person to be so infernally unlucky as to *always* get the 1/3 result, but the majority of people should fall into the 'standard distribution' of results....except L2 doesn't seem to have such a thing. All too often it seems like people have success/failure streaks well out of proportion to the stated base chances per attempt. Thus you get far too many people failing so many times in a row that it's well out of range of 'statistically probable' result.
And THAT is why crafting and overenchanting in L2 generates such a large volume of yes/no and 'how to' discussion whenever it comes up. (The number of people whose succeed/fail streaks are out of proportion to what a 'random distribution' should be for a 2/3 enchant or 70%/60% craft.)
I have a question I would like to discuss about OE as well as crafting success. I have read from some people that these success-fail stats are server wide. That means that when someone makes let's say 3 successfull attempts (OE or crafting), if your attempt is next, it is very possible that you will fail. Does something like this stand or is it pure rumor?
Yea yea, basic maths. But I still view it as a single event every time ;) As you said, the chance is the same each time. I dont care about the samples or anything, since I dont have my leet "OE theoryz" to prove how you can OE everything to +2567 if you wear formal wear and dance while sacrificing an elpy in the church.
Personally, I'm around something like 80/100 in succesful 60/70% crafts. I bet it will even out the more I craft :)
Its easy to prove if weapons are preset to go on a certain +++ or not. I have the theory in my hands but I dont have the money /resources to do it. Its very simple and very easy and it can be confirmed even with a D weapon. All you have to have in order to prove it is plenty of Blessed EWD. Then you get a weapond OE it till it reaches 0 due to BEWB failure. Then you try again with normal EWD. If it fails on the same level then you are near your conclusion that EACH weapon has an OE limit. If it passes the OE limit or breaks before that BEWD OE limit then the theory is not correct. I never managed to find/have enough money of Blessed EWxxxx to prove it but I believe this is the only way to prove it.
If you want my opinion, I also believe that every weapon has a OE limit.
I have OEd SOL+12. Glaive +11, Kris +8, Demons+10 and now a SoulSep +7.
I have broken very few D and C so I strongly believe that I got high limit OE weapons in my hands and this is the luck of it.
P.S. I also believe that some ppl have a way to know the weapons' limit but unfortunately I cant prove it. I am certain it has to do either with exploiting AI of the game or using "instanced" real-time enviroment just for the tests. I cant prove anything though so its just a hunch that ppl do it.
I still think you are making this more of a mystery than it has to be. You're imagining a devil where none exists. The very simplicity of the enchant is your undoing. It is just simple luck. Nothing behind the curtain. No green screen to make the digital effects possible. No invisible string to hold aloft those winged angels in flight. No push-up brassieres, duct tape and vaseline to keep the super models in their evening gowns. It's just luck.
I'mm now at 21 DC helms blown up and none went +6. Hows that for a bad streak.... I mean come on I only need to succeed 3 enchants.. I bet if they were DS I was OE I'd have many +6... The system IS flawed somehow, I dont know how but it IS.
sigh... I am single handedly driving DC helm prices up on my server ><
I still think you are making this more of a mystery than it has to be. You're imagining a devil where none exists. The very simplicity of the enchant is your undoing. It is just simple luck. Nothing behind the curtain. No green screen to make the digital effects possible. No invisible string to hold aloft those winged angels in flight. No push-up brassieres, duct tape and vaseline to keep the super models in their evening gowns. It's just luck.
I still think you are making this more of a mystery than it has to be. You're imagining a devil where none exists. The very simplicity of the enchant is your undoing. It is just simple luck. Nothing behind the curtain. No green screen to make the digital effects possible. No invisible string to hold aloft those winged angels in flight. No push-up brassieres, duct tape and vaseline to keep the super models in their evening gowns. It's just luck.
I still think you are making this more of a mystery than it has to be. You're imagining a devil where none exists. The very simplicity of the enchant is your undoing. It is just simple luck. Nothing behind the curtain. No green screen to make the digital effects possible. No invisible string to hold aloft those winged angels in flight. No push-up brassieres, duct tape and vaseline to keep the super models in their evening gowns. It's just luck.
Or poor-quality code?
or it may be "broken" on purpose. random logic is very time consuming, doing so many random rolls in real time may be even impossible so it is quite probable that game uses some simplification or dirty tricks to make it look like it's random. the problem is to find what the trick is :T
I also have always been very suspicious that there is a way to tell how high a weapon can go, since it seems like when I have bought a +'d weap and oe'd, it blew, but my % on ones I took to +4 and up myself are better. Hmmmm, maybe the fat lil dwarf grinning at me for buying his +5 that just blew at +6 knew something . . . .
I still think you are making this more of a mystery than it has to be. You're imagining a devil where none exists. The very simplicity of the enchant is your undoing. It is just simple luck. Nothing behind the curtain. No green screen to make the digital effects possible. No invisible string to hold aloft those winged angels in flight. No push-up brassieres, duct tape and vaseline to keep the super models in their evening gowns. It's just luck.
Or poor-quality code?
or it may be "broken" on purpose. random logic is very time consuming, doing so many random rolls in real time may be even impossible so it is quite probable that game uses some simplification or dirty tricks to make it look like it's random. the problem is to find what the trick is :T
Code Purposely Broken = Poor-Quality Code
It also means poor-quality developers.
Game developers especially are usually well-versed in mathematics. Things like Random Number Generators are very compulsory in any 4 year University-level Computer Science Program (even if you major in Mathematics and Minor in Computer Science).
I can understand the sound being broken, but for the RNG to be broken on purpose would really suprise me.
I also have always been very suspicious that there is a way to tell how high a weapon can go, since it seems like when I have bought a +'d weap and oe'd, it blew....
And yet during the early days of C4, I made billions of adena buying cheap OE'd weapons and successfully applying multiple enchant scrolls to them for even greater profits.
I've also broken a few weapons just trying +4.
Really, for the bazillionth time, there is no grist for the conspiracy theorist mill here, folks. :mad:
i consider myself unlucky but the bad streaks ive had are just horrible.
of the 7-8 60% weapon crafts ive tried only one of them worked and that was the last day of c2. most recent was bloody orchid and tallum blade failed at same time. :(
of the 20+ weapons ive enchanted on live servers, 80%(rough estimate) have broken goin to +4. still didnt manage anything amazing on the enchants that worked. +7 bop was best i got....and that was enchanted over a few months 1 at a time.
the truly bizzare part that drives me crazy is that all the s jewels ive crafted have been successful except one of 10+ crafts.
tho for the pts chaos weeks i managed 5+ +16 weapons, like i didnt have to try that hard....(less than 100 attempts on pts with so many good streaks)
all in all, random numbers are not my friend and 60-66% chance is really misleading.
I had a SOM to +5 and thought ... hmmm why not go +6. Why not me.
Why not me indeed! :mad:
Unless you play a lot and concentrate a lot on making money or getting enchants, crafting, etc, it's just too time consuming in case of the failures. At least for me. :(
I agree that any luck system in lineage definately goes in streaks. And the fact that some people are permanently on good or bad luck streaks with overchanting... makes you wonder. What if the seed for the randomization is based on your characters name (each letter has a numerical value after all), or a windows position, or mouse cursor position, or something else crazy like that..?
Ok fair enough at the end of it all its 66.66% on weapon (gives double effect) and 50.00% on armour/jewels (gives triple effect). But that doesnt explain why some people consistently can overchant high (with breaks of course too) whereas others consistently havent been able to overchant even moderately, for the entire time they have played lineage. Thats some streak, right..?
I was able to increase my DC Helm OE failures to 26 in a row!
Do me a favour and try enchant a couple on a different toon with a completely different name, and move yer windows around d:) lols ;)
Yeah i tried that, most attempts were 1 toon but did 8 or so with my other guys.
Also tried turning out the lights and stripping naked, rubbing motor oil all over myself and shaving pentagrams in my chest hairs before enchanting :eek:
The best suggestion I have is to OE several items quickly one at a time. That way you will probably get as close as possible to the 66%. Allthough you might try doing the following: if you OE one or two expect next will fail so OE something not as expensive. Or when you fail one or two in row do the expensive one next.