Up until now, I have defended Lineage 2 to my friends. That, despite the game being dominated by bots, losing player-base to newer MMOs, and being a long grind of a game... I told my friends that the game can still be enjoyable and, while it is a difficult game at times, it is still fair. To many of my friends, I am the one remaining voice supporting L2.
However, I am now frustrated and am wavering on my support of this game. Why? Over-enchantments...
I have always heard that we have a 2/3 chance to enchant a weapon past +3. However, my findings prove quite differently.
I have now failed on my last 12 consecutive attempts. 12! The odds of that are 1 in 531,441.
According to the National Lightning Safety Institute, that is about the odds of me being struck by lightning... twice.
I like math alot, and I in general have faith in statistical probability and that, assuming OE success rate is 66%, over a large sampling, results will normalize to about 66% and flatten out occasional spurts of luckiness or unluckiness.
However, I have now attempted to OE about 21 SOMs over the course of about 7 months. (My dwarf makes enough profit from selling [censored] and BSS such that I buy 3 SOMs a month make such attempts).
Based on statistical averages, I should have had....
14 survive to +4
9 survive to +5
6 survive to +6
4 survive to +7
2 survive to +8
(rounded down)
However, in my case, I have had...
5 survive to +4
1 survive to +5
I understand some measure of luck is always involved, but these results are ridiculous. These numbers are a little more consistent with a 1/3 success rate or less, rather than 2/3 success rate for OEing.
Many months ago, I had set a goal for myself... get a +7 SOM. I knew it would be tough, and I knew it would be expensive. I did the math, and I figured, okay... it should take maybe an average of 7 SOMs to achieve +7. If I run my dwarf shop selling shots all the time, I could maybe achieve that in 3 months. I was willing to be patient. If I was a bit lucky, maybe I would achieve it in under 7 SOMs. If I was unlucky, maybe it would take me 10 SOMs.
But, 21 SOMs later, and still no +7. Just alot of A crystals.
Conclusions?
Option 1.) I am so unlucky, I should fear ever stepping outside my house for fear of being hit... by lightning... twice.
Option 2.) The 66% success rate is wrong, at least in regards to SOMs.
Option 3.) Option 1 + I have wasted several months of my life playing this game, and trying to encourage my not-so-enthused friends to keep playing as well.
I realize I am very upset right now, and very frustrated. This carrot called an Enchant Weapon scroll is looking more and more like a poison apple.
I think taking a break from L2 might be good for me. At least I can take some joy in withholding $15 each month from NC's coffers.
Sorry for the ranting... I'm just tired of it all at the moment,
This is 1 out of 2 for failure for me... so I agree, it either you are very unlucky (cause the SoMs cost a loooooot more ;) ) or the 2/3 successful attempts is wrong...
Statistical outcomes NEVER predictably work like you think!
A 2 of 3 chance each occurrence for a set number of successful occurrences is tough....
Going from +3 to +4 you have about a 1 in 3 chance of failure.
You get to +4---you have a NEW 1 in 3 chance of failure.
You get to +5--new 1 in 3 chance of failure.
You get to + 6--new chance in failure (1 in 3 times). If you fail at THIS point, you actually had a really good outcome!!! You would have had a 75% success rate in overenchanting at risk (above +3) and were still WELL within the expected/predicted 66% success for each enchant.
Basically to get to +10, you have to survive the 1 in 3 failure chance 7 straight times. That would actually be pretty amazing!
The highest I've taken D-weapons is +8. I don't try above +6 most of the time. Since getting my butt handed to me with C-weapon failures I never oe anything higher than D-grade anymore (can't afford to lose).
I don't question your intellect, I question your common sense...and sanity. 21 SOM's blown just to try for +7??!!!?? Are you mad???
Why?
For the glow? Just so that you could say that you have a barely visible flame effect? Surely the glow from a top grade life stone is better and cheaper. (It is.)
For the matk? 185, if memory serves. Barely anything to write home about, when there are now S grade mage weapons in the game. And have you done the math on magic damage? Does a +7 SOM permit you to one shot every mob your level? Or are nukers still 2-shotting mobs their level, even with a +9 SOM and complimentary mage buffs? (I think it's still a 2 shot kill, Hoss!)
For the value? Is a +7 SOM worth 21 x ~65M adena + EWA's??? You spent more than 1.4B adena chasing that White Whale! Does a complimentary Frintezza come with the SOM when you swooosh +7? (No, no, and NO again.)
For the challenge? Ok, you get a pass here. Far more expensive exploits have been attempted throughout the history of mankind.
But somewhere along the way, one would hope that it would dawn on you...STOP CHASING THE ENCHANT!!!
Ladies and gents, let this stand as yet another cautionary tale for the unitiated. Don't OE unless you can handle the fails.
Just for the record, +7 SoM is just shy of a +3 Arcana Mace.
In my case since I took 1 SoM and it succeed to +7 on the 1st try, that means I won't need to buy an Arcana Mace, I won't need to buy a lvl 13 Soul Crystal and I won't need to buy S gems to SA the Arcana Mace and I won't need to buy 3 EW-S scrolls at 30-40kk a pop.
Does it allow me to 1 shoot a mob, no, but it helps out on the mobs that used to leave some HP after 2 nukes on a +3 SoM.
However, I do agree that waisting 21 SoM's to try and get 1 of them to +7 is sheer lunacy.
I failed 2 70% jewelry crafts in a row, L2 is just like that. That's nothing really but what "should happen" is something you can't say about anything in l2. At least that's how I see it.
Like if I kill 500 of these mobs I SHOULD get x drop because the drop rate is 1/500. NOPE.
I still stick to the 66% favour for the player, just to bad that you need to overcome the first 33% and that game loves to make you role 1 -33 all the time :P
Just for the record, +7 SoM is just shy of a +3 Arcana Mace.
But an arcana mace is an incredibly ugly weapon and is a one handed blunt which uses more expensive bspsS. I do not like how one handed blunts look on mages, and with archers being what they are a mage really does need a shield which means one handed weapons only. Until NC releases a regular S grade mage sword with acumen, a +7 som is the only option for fasjion concientious 79 and under mage.
To conclude, it is widely known that the enchant success rates for mage weapons is lower than every other weapon type, which really makes no sense whatsoever when you consder that the value of the next overenchant is worth less to the mage whose magic attack is square rooted than the value of the next overenchant to a class that uses physical attacks. If the game were to make sense, it would have to be mage weapons that have a higher success rate.
I just leave it at chance. Like last night I set out to get a mana burn book, dug in and expected to be there for hours. 4 mobs in and it drops :) I soe back to town port to giran and get an awesome deal on a carnage bow. Figure what the heck and try my hand at some OE. Only took it to +5 but still the highest weapon i've ever made ^_^
take a value of 4billion, 66% of that will succeed usually and 33% will fail, the other 1% is just a mixed up garbled number.
even at 4 billion, 66%+ could end up failing anyways... so lets take an infinite value, adding in 66%.. and there you have it.
but on a per enchant baises, there is a 66% of success and 33% chance of failure, due to luck and random draws, that is what will determine if it enchants or not.
I think it's just bad randomizer code. Why it affects some people worse than others is anyone's guess. Maybe client-server lag, maybe a character luck seed, maybe something else.
If you want to test the randomizer engine on large numbers you can use the manor. Me and a friend, both the same level, did seeds 10 levels lower than ourselves (gives us both a certain chance of failure).
After 1000 seeds each I had a success land rate of 49% while he had 74%. 489 seeds landed for me while 738 landed for him. That shouldn't be statistically possible but it happened. Bad code or bad luck. You be the judge.
I read somewhere that Mage weapons have a 1/3 chance of Oeing... if i can ever dig up the place i'll post up a link >.>
This is not true. Mage weapons have same chance of success/fail as every other weapon. Take my word for it.
The OP just ran afoul of bad luck, and possibly questionable judgment.
Sure, it's his adena to do with as he pleases, but I would have used that adena on an Epic Boss Jewel...or waited for someone to sell their +7 (or higher) SOM. On Devianne just the other day someone was unloading a +8, and not a month before that a +9 and a +7.
I realize there is zero sense of accomplishment in simply buying the fruit of someone else's good fortune. But it has to be better than wasting billions of adena and coming to the boards to rant and regurgitate conspiracy theories. :D
i failed 5 98% enchants
its why we call it korean random, you can bet right next to you is a guy who went 0-+7 on a som in 1 try
++TRUTH
Oh, and once a char fails half that many 'random rolls'....it's almost guaranteed to do it forever. Time to hand the weapons and scrolls to an alt, and try and find a char that has 'luck' with enchanting.
Seriously, it seems as if certain characters are doomed to constantly fail while others seem to almost always succeed. (And very few match the given chance exactly.)
Seriously, it seems as if certain characters are doomed to constantly fail while others seem to almost always succeed. (And very few match the given chance exactly.)
the pic shows me getting the 3 worst recs and 2 lots of adena
the price difference between those recs and... ones ppl actually want is 10:1
odds of getting 2 lots of adena is also statistically low
So much ebay in this thread. . . Next time just ebay the whole weapon and save yourself some trouble.
Btw I dont think nc ever released the exact enchant %s. Meaning your % came from a fan site, meaning theres a 98% chance that its wrong. And it does seem to be effected by the type of weapon, ive never broke a dark screamer going +4 either.
Meaning your % came from a fan site, meaning theres a 98% chance that its wrong.
Meaning ALL randomly made up statistics are false, are therefore mear 'assumptions'. Have a nice day and thanks for your $0.02 cents worth of input in this thread, however irrelevant or insignificant it might be.
Doesn't the official lineage2 Korean website state 66% successrate on enchants.
No but the screen when you're logging into L2NA says that after +3 every weapon has a 1 in 3 chance to fail. 1 in 3 chance to fail ~= 66% chance to succeed.
Option 2.) The 66% success rate is wrong, at least in regards to SOMs.
This is probably the one, though they wont admit to it me and my friends have done many over enchants on varying weapons and all the mystic type weapons do not over enchant well they blow up a heck of a lot easier than at the fighter weapons. Im beginning to think that most of the OE homunculus weapons came from the dagger equivalent and transfered over which may be why they wont let you do it in B, A or S grades.
However you could just be right with option 1 and have done all the enchants when the percentages are not in your favor or at times in the game after several people on the server have been quite fortunate and done theres and your part of the flattening out of there over enchanting lucky arses. :eek: i too have stopped over enchanting everything above D grade and have only been successful enough to get two sets of D grade Duals to +10 then Blew them both up at +11 :eek:
The real answer to OE is to do it drunk. When drunk I have never had a failure. I've only had one success when not drunk.
Give it a try. The worst thing you'll end up with is more crystals :D
No but the screen when you're logging into L2NA says that after +3 every weapon has a 1 in 3 chance to fail. 1 in 3 chance to fail ~= 66% chance to succeed.
I like math alot, and I in general have faith in statistical probability
Then you know your sample is way too small to be worth squat. I've done a lot of enchanting in my time, and sometimes I would have runs of 5 or 6 weapons when none would enchant to +4, but others I would have runes where 5 or 6 would enchant to +5 with no dramas. To complain about the odds not being 2/3 you need a much larger sample.
The word random is used to express lack of order, purpose, cause, or predictability in non-scientific parlance. A random process is a repeating process whose outcomes follow no describable deterministic pattern, but follow a probability distribution.... (excerpt from wiki)
Most of us should know by now that you can't predict what you should get from a random event. It is RANDOM!!
Random drops is a different story.... i can predict that the same person will get majority of the drops when multiple people are picking up... aka, not random...
TBH I never ever tried to OE a weapon. I always play save and stick to +3 and try to make a good deal when selling +3 and buy +4, like I did with my Emi.Bow (+3CS sold for 17.5kk, bought +4CS for 18kk leaving me with 2 unused EWCs in WH).
It's just luck, like flipping a coin. It can be heads, it can be tails. It's no 33% chance of failure it's 50% change of failure. It breaks or it goes +4/+5 etc.
The only bad thing about OE'ing is that you need to OE a dual sword to give it a SA, which is kinda broken if you know that all other weapons can buy SA crystals in Lux.Shop and not having the change to break there weapon to give it a SA.
I think it's just bad randomizer code. Why it affects some people worse than others is anyone's guess. Maybe client-server lag, maybe a character luck seed, maybe something else.
Superstition. I heard recently that some WoW players had deep superstitions about drops. Anyway, the server use its own seed for its random number generator. It's not linked to the character.
To think that the sample isn't big enough to determine the % of success is erroneous. If on a 50% chance of success you start by 20 failure on 20 attempts, the 20 next won't be more successful to catch up with statistics.
Here in L2, it is a RNG, not a throw of dice in real life. RNGs have patterns, whether you want it or not. The differences you may have between RNGs are on the serials, the spreads. To be honest, I'd prefer shorter patterns simply for the action we can't do en masse. Because if I can go on a long serial of failure on the crafting of an item I can only try three times, I really won't enjoy the fact that the RNG is "almost truly random".
I think we generally don't want random things in games. We'd prefer a system where 5% chance of success means that after 20 times doing it, we'd be almost sure to succeed, and sure at 25+ attempts. That's not random, but players would probably enjoy it a lot more.
Well then I must count myself **** lucky - Quite some time ago (probably a year or more now) I decided to create an over enchanted TSU*SAL and got it all the way up to +16 which was my goal for the silly red glow (may be a mistake because now I am a shining target in seiges) never the less I did not do it in one sitting - I OE'd over a period of several weeks and generally after something bad happened to me or my other toon (dropped an item, died or popped another lower grade weapon) but in all honesty I knew it was completely random and when going from 15 to 16 i just closed my eyes and clicked the mouse hoping to not hear that fatal pop sound and i was lucky :)
TBH I never ever tried to OE a weapon. I always play save and stick to +3 and try to make a good deal when selling +3 and buy +4, like I did with my Emi.Bow (+3CS sold for 17.5kk, bought +4CS for 18kk leaving me with 2 unused EWCs in WH).
It's just luck, like flipping a coin. It can be heads, it can be tails. It's no 33% chance of failure it's 50% change of failure. It breaks or it goes +4/+5 etc.
The only bad thing about OE'ing is that you need to OE a dual sword to give it a SA, which is kinda broken if you know that all other weapons can buy SA crystals in Lux.Shop and not having the change to break there weapon to give it a SA.
Dude.. you are crazy. ITS BETTER that its just +4 to get sa on DUAls. Freaking crystals 11 or higher costs over 100kk!!. For that you can get a many pairs of a grade duals or almost s duals... Lets say it takes you 2 trys to make +4 s duals. Thats like 250kk +8*30kk=480kk. +4 s grade wep +lvl 13 crys goes for WAY more. And you duals can be made for like 240kk . And most people goes for +4 or more since you got no other way to upgrade at s. except for skills and sa. So basicly dual wielders gets free SA.
say that to 6 pairs of dual keshes that popped going for +4..
dual keshes = 80mil NOW but was nearly 200mil before... so while there is soulbow users running around with +3 and a SA on it for 200mil, alot of people have put out over 400-600mil just to get low grade duals...
I sort of wish that there was a streak breaker in the game... something to prevent someone from getting a dozen failures in a row. At least give an OE'er a little break. 12 failures in a row is cruel, bad luck. Too cruel.
*Watch out for lightning. Twice!*
For my part, I have had mixed luck. I think my OE success rate is about 40%, all said and told, if I don't differentiate between weapons.
I tend to get bad and good streaks. 6 straight failures, then 4 succcesses, repeatedly fairly often.
I got lucky and OE'd an AOBA from +3 to +6. I then blew up some other stuff. Got the AOBA from +6 to +8. Blew up more other stuff. Then, got the AOBA to +12.
I blew up 6 more other items, then got a +12 BOP up to +16 in one go.
OEing can be fun, can even be addictive, but in hindsight, probably paying for other people's success than OEing yourself.
The only weapons I've seen enchant well are bows, daggers, and dual swords. I've never seen a Bgrade or higher mage weapon enchant over 10. For some reason mage weapons seemingly just don't OE well. If you want to play around with it hit up a you-know-what server. Blow up weapons for hours and see what you can get to +16 first.
P.S. 90% of +16 homus were enchanted as darkscreamers.
Well, it's unfortunate that you've crystallized 21 SoM, but that doesn't mean that the 66% isn't the correct statistic, because maybe somewhere in Aden, there is a little cute dwarf sitting in front of the church succeeding 30 SoM+7 without blowing up any. It's just chance, some people are blessed others are not! I failed 3 maj leather crafts in a row, and 5 NM shields *smirk* - Dont ask me why I kept trying! *smirk* That's just the way it is, deal with it! If you know your unlucky, dont risk it and just buy the **** thing when you've got the money!
Umm, anything that involves statistics can not be proven on such small numbers. 12 attempts? Those are so few that they are statistically unsound. A statistic only proves on an over 1000+ number of attempts. So if you were to take all attempts on a server (to go to +4 for example on any item considering the chances are NOT different) and make a statistic you should come up with the official probability that they say when you start up lineage 2 (a tip). Plus/minus a certain degree of error.
If not, then they lie about the chance of success. Simple as that.
Not talk about statistical distribution of a certain event... Jesus, don't want to remember those. And that's why i pretty much despise anything involving "gambling".
I remember back in college when we were trying to make statistics on nuclear decay with only 20-50 measurements... we were silly... Until the professor made us make 1500 measurements :eek:. (and ofcourse we faked past one thou, used some made up numbers to fit the statistic :()