crafting in gracia = bankruptcy

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anyone else notice that that 60% figure is pretty much crap since gracia hit? i'm not the only one who's had serious troubles crafting, hence my posting.

i attempted 3 sirra's blade crafts yesterday on sayha. all three failed.

if anyone on sayha has another recipe or blades that they want to donate or give me a decent price on, let me know. i'm very broke right now, though, so don't expect me to be able to pay e-bay prices, please.
Nope, It's just bad Luck. Failed 3 IC Glove Crafts one right after the other, but I was able to succeded Arcana Boot, Glove and Helm right after each other >.<
in the couple weeks i've been back
failed 2 basalts @ 60% in a row
failed 5 skill enchants at 48% in a row
failed 7 skill enchants at 80-98%
failed 23 out of 27 elemental stones (unknown %)

none of that really surprises me though, in previous chronicles i failed 9 BW helms at 60% in a row and my sister failed 8 tallum plates ><
I failed 5 DC robes before the 6th worked. Farmed every rec myself in AL too. God how I hated that quest by the end lol.
I have a clannie who failed to +1 stun shot like ten times in a row. That was before Gracia, but still - those Korean dice must be very weird indeed.
That's because you didn't deserve it. Korean Random always rewards the good people.
Yes, don't worry, nothing has probably changed. It's just cheap korean pseudo-random at work.
Succeeded 5 out of 7 s80 Dynasty crafts, i'm not complaining ^_^
Yes it makes you poor just trying to craft to get one foundation item ><
4/4 DC Shields 60%
10/10 Doom shields
5/5 Avadon Shields
And a slew of other crafts which make about 50% success rate on anything thats not 100%
And not one foundation item this crit must be ridiculusly rare ><
I still say you should get 80% of the mats back on a fail much like when you return the agaithions to the lux shop when trying for angel or devil.
My fail rate since I started to play this game 3 years ago is about 98%.
Failed 23 out of 25 60% crafts, failed 14 out of 14 attempts to OE weapons for +4.

SO I am 78/76/77 and still in A and B grade. How the hell am I supposed to enjoy game with luck like this?
L2 random ftl, discourages lot of players, encourages ebay etc...we all know it...yet ncsoft adds more random effects/formulas
wow gys... ever thought o making money others ways and then saying craft and fail one.. and then buy 1? if you fail 1 at 30-40% cost then buy 1, then ur only spending about 3-1. if you craft 10 of em arnt sending money down the pit? think o the math guys.... if ur crafting for sucess then obviously craft away and be happy when u beat the odds. Other wise set a limit of craft fails and then just make enuf to buy the item. I can make 100's of millions of a easily with the amount of time and capital u guys put in crafting.....

My fail rate since I started to play this game 3 years ago is about 98%.
Failed 23 out of 25 60% crafts, failed 14 out of 14 attempts to OE weapons for +4.

SO I am 78/76/77 and still in A and B grade. How the hell am I supposed to enjoy game with luck like this?



i thought i was the unluckiest player when it comes to craft and oe, but i see that there are more like me out there.

L2 random ftl, discourages lot of players, encourages ebay etc... we all know it...yet ncsoft adds more random effects/formulas




amen to that.

L2 random ftl, discourages lot of players, encourages ebay etc...we all know it...yet ncsoft adds more random effects/formulas



Crafts, enchants is money sink. Money sink is GOOD thing.
Ppl ebuy because they think they must everything TOP.
I know guy who already crafted 30+ Tateossian earings and still trying get rare. For +20 max MP bonus!!!
you can make one bilion money sinks without L2 random
why should 1 player spend 10* more time to get the same armor, same weapon, same enchant, same skill enchant, same quest than other player (same class, same lvl, same everything), thats very bad designed money sink
shots are better money sink, soulore/spiritore is good money sink etc etc, ...

Crafts, enchants is money sink. Money sink is GOOD thing.
Ppl ebuy because they think they must everything TOP.
I know guy who already crafted 30+ Tateossian earings and still trying get rare. For +20 max MP bonus!!!



Adena sink is good, I agree. Nevertheless, players that doesn't use much adena sink are the automatic 9-man party :(

Maybe that's why they introduced the common items for the "real" and relatively new players to fall back on, even if they fail the crafts.
common items are good for bots as well, all the Cgr equiped bots in 7+ locations can switch to cheap Agr now
I dont aggree. Yes its true ppl always want the top, but at a certain time you just deserve top. I for example lvled till 74 with a +7 homu, till 78 with a SoM. You are saying its a good thing that after 4 years of playing and 1 year of money-making I failed 6 on 8 Arcana Mace crafts? I dont think so~
Same goes for skill enchant. Ofc there are ppl that FoG their skills up to +16, but at a certain lvl (like if you kill mobs on IoP) you simply cant continue with a +0 spell. And again the same for element stones etc.
I totally aggree tho that overenchanting of weapons is completly useless unless you go +7 or more. Before you wont see any difference in damage, and to buy a +4 just to say you have one or for the glow is just rediculous.

I totally aggree tho that overenchanting of weapons is completly useless



Not for duals :p
bah always an exception ^^
soulbreaker rapier has a good skill when it's +4 too, you can't imagine how useful is maximum ability on a party ^^

You are saying its a good thing that after 4 years of playing and 1 year of money-making I failed 6 on 8 Arcana Mace crafts? I dont think so~



There is 100% way get AM - buy it from another player. But it will cost more.
pure random is just bad
telling ppl to buy instead of craft, buy instead of enchant, ...?...instead of skill enchant is just cheap
craft system is here for everyone and if pure luck is what decides about players fun etc, its stupid, nvm that its possible that noone ever on sever will succeed some craft, would be funny to see that situation even its very small chance
1/1 Elysian
1/2 Tallum Glaive
2/5 Maj Earrings
2/4 Maj Rings
1/1 Maj Necklace
0/2 Maj Plate (I ended buying it)
1/1 Maj Helm,Boots,Gloves

Not bad I guess...I'm gathering the mats for my Basalt now...1 head left on my buyer char, and now im going to farm DMP (308 !!!) and AA for the Gems n Crys...And believe I'm nervous about the craft...
Not for bows too, with a +6 bop i have more/same attack then with a +3 carnage, and a better SA, less cost.

There is 100% way get AM - buy it from another player. But it will cost more.



Funny....not
if anyone can craft it, ie., from blacksmith, or
enchant it, then i can almost understand the random thing,
but i don't get why something only able to be crafted by
a dwarf that's special ability is suppose to be to craft, i don't get random on that. if only my dwarf can make those earrings, then it shouldn't be random chance. if everyone can go to blacksmith to make a sword, then, ok, i see random maybe. but that doesn't seem to be the case. it just seems to penalize the race that specifically is suppose to make things...anyone can enchant, but not anyone can make earring. i don't know if i explain it understandably, sorry.
1/6 Tallum Plate armor
0/7 Taetosian Ring / Earring / Amulet

1/6 Tallum Plate armor
0/7 Taetosian Ring / Earring / Amulet



Why u tried after the 4th Tat ??? XD

if anyone can craft it, ie., from blacksmith, or
enchant it, then i can almost understand the random thing,
but i don't get why something only able to be crafted by
a dwarf that's special ability is suppose to be to craft, i don't get random on that. if only my dwarf can make those earrings, then it shouldn't be random chance. if everyone can go to blacksmith to make a sword, then, ok, i see random maybe. but that doesn't seem to be the case. it just seems to penalize the race that specifically is suppose to make things...anyone can enchant, but not anyone can make earring. i don't know if i explain it understandably, sorry.



Maybe not 100% but Id love WS getting a skill that raises the success % :)

wow gys... ever thought o making money others ways and then saying craft and fail one.. and then buy 1? if you fail 1 at 30-40% cost then buy 1, then ur only spending about 3-1. if you craft 10 of em arnt sending money down the pit? think o the math guys.... if ur crafting for sucess then obviously craft away and be happy when u beat the odds. Other wise set a limit of craft fails and then just make enuf to buy the item. I can make 100's of millions of a easily with the amount of time and capital u guys put in crafting.....





your argument fails on the fact that interlude weapons really aren't for sale anywhere at all. not to mention that it's rediculous that you have to be 75 to even get the recipes...at that point, you're going for s grade. "subs?" yeah...make one for your sub instead of spending money on your s grade...also failed argument.

sorry...just don't think the 60% really reflects the true chances.
LOL failing craft is great. you should say a prayer next craft and believe it.

sorry...just don't think the 60% really reflects the true chances.



:o Isn't 60% the failing rate? :p


pure random is just bad
telling ppl to buy instead of craft, buy instead of enchant, ...?...instead of skill enchant is just cheap
craft system is here for everyone and if pure luck is what decides about players fun etc, its stupid, nvm that its possible that noone ever on sever will succeed some craft, would be funny to see that situation even its very small chance


exactly
it ****** me off that the only thing defining if someone has a more advanced better geared toon then me is that they had better luck flipping coins then i did
I think you are supposed to craft 60% in series, like 20 crafts in a row, that should yield like 12 successful crafts. this is just another thing to favor player corporations - the series crafting can only be a clan wide venture.


Maybe not 100% but Id love WS getting a skill that raises the success % :)


Long time ago existed 60% and 80% B craft recipes... Epic fail.
is it possible to make S grade dual dle*tallum using common DLE and common tallum? i look in BS mammon and they dont exist. :*(
Its totallly random on 60 and 70% crafts, seems exactly the same as prelude (when i last played and crafted). Right now im on my hot streak for crafting, done:
2/2 Tateo necklaces
2/2 Tateo earrings
3/3 Tateo rings
2/2 DC Boots
1/1 Majestic Light

Enchants are another story for me, got 3 dc boots to +5 before blowing em all (yay for 661 a crys), 3 pairs of raids blown going to 4 and my tateo necklace blown going to 4, pretty much the first thing i did when gracia hit (rift +eas+me=bad). Thats my enchanting experiences so far, im sure the luck will reverse on both soon enough. :p
Ps: I agree that crafting and maybe even full drops should have a timer or count for each player, meaning after so many tries, you'll succed eventually. Nothing like saving for a 60% craft on a wep for a casual player only to see it fail, with no return or even having a better chance if they decide to try again.
there is no counter, it's just random.
If you're replying to me, yes I know that :) But at this point in L2's life, this games considered dated and its not going to draw in 1000's of new players considering how the mmo market is. Devs need to consider adding a counter or a individal chance rate for each character or account, maybe save a few newer players from leaving after failing and giving them some incentive to try again. Right now the only incentive to craft 60-70% is it costing less than flat out buying, or getting a foundation. Personally since my lucks prolly over 50% sucess, I dont mind as it is, but for the stabilty of the player base, its a good idea to impliment.
Would already help to get some mats back on a failed craft.
Bgr crafts are fine, you have 2 options 100% and 60% craft...your choice, risk and cheap or no risk and more expansive, thats how it should be w/ all crafts imo
Yea thats another idea, at least for a grade and maybe s grade they should add 100% crafts...I mean thats how long those items are already ingame?... >.<
I say just add 100% craft OPTION with 3x the cost but no, that would remove the need to craft in series. they are sadistic gentlemen, just that.
if there was a counter that would prevent f.ex. 4+ fails in a row, people would just craft some b grade 60% to see 3x fails and then craft expensive S grade thing. if you'd store a counter for each recipe to avoid this exploit ... just imagine how much resources would this require.
failing make game interesting, lol. if you failed in life you always cry about it? if you have 60% chance of winning and you failed at it, are you go cry and asking for fixing to the system? no
oh don't worry...i fail at life too.

well that 3 sirra attempts completely bankrupted me and i've always been a strictly legit player. my accounts expire in a few days so i'ma go try some other games for a while.
if you re low and looking for a specific 60% item it makes more sense to wait till you can afford to buy it instead of failing 2-3-4-5 60% crafts ... at least that's what I did.
Yes by all means craft, but craft to sell not to equip.

well that 3 sirra attempts completely bankrupted me


So basically you were greedy and wanted to make some huge profits. As in real finance, the highest rewards usually carry the highest risk.

The moral of the story is if you can't afford to fail, don't do it.

The moral of the story is if you can't afford to fail, don't do it.


I agree with that. There are safer ways to earn money, they just don't give as much money at one time. It's like OE, sure you can make a fortune with OE, but if you can't handle the failure, it's stupid to try.

well that 3 sirra attempts completely bankrupted me



And that's why smart people who isnt doing the crafts for profit just buys the weapon instead of risking playing without a weapon.

failing make game interesting, lol. if you failed in life you always cry about it? if you have 60% chance of winning and you failed at it, are you go cry and asking for fixing to the system? no



yes, if you fail here and there, lets say 50%...it gives you some "adrenaline"
but its still not answer to why, should any player be in huge dissadvantage just becakouse of some pseudorandom function and another player (same class, lvl, everything) in huge advantage...this is game, not RL, and in games ppl in the same situations should have same chance


failing make game interesting, lol. if you failed in life you always cry about it? if you have 60% chance of winning and you failed at it, are you go cry and asking for fixing to the system? no



yes, if you fail here and there, lets say 50%...it gives you some "adrenaline"
but its still not answer to why, should any player be in huge dissadvantage just becakouse of some pseudorandom function and another player (same class, lvl, everything) in huge advantage...this is game, not RL, and in games ppl in the same situations should have same chance



it's called luck ... one guy spends $200/week playing the lottery and wins nothing, other guy buys a $1 ticket with his beer change and wins $30m
yes BordrX, but this is not RL...this is L2 and luck which gives advantages and disadvantages to ppl is bad design, ppl quit becuase of it, ppl are dissapointed, ppl ebay...game is about fun, about having same chances to "win" as others...its not really fun for ppl to fail many times in row
you do have the same chances to win as the other guy. Difference is not everybody wins.

Besides, quitting because of failed crafts/blown enchants means you shouldnt have attempted the thing in the first place.

Real life, 2 people go the casino, one is a billionaire playing 20k for fun other is random dude sold his car and is playing his last 20k too. Both have an equal chance at winning roulette, but if the sold my car to play guy looses he's ****ed. And the problem isnt the roulette or the odds, it's the guy that shouldnt even be playing in the first place.

And it's not good/bad design ... it was meant as an adena sink and that's how it functions, money (mats etc) goes up in flames when you fail a craft/enchant. L2 is a game that requires some planning to play. Simple planning, not rocket science, like understanding what risks you can take and what risks you cant afford to.

Besides, quitting because of failed crafts/blown enchants means you shouldnt have attempted the thing in the first place.
Real life, 2 people go the casino, one is a billionaire


As it was already said, we aren't speaking about real life. We are speaking about a game, where you can afford to quit L2 and move on.
as I said, this is not RealLife
this is about basics of games
crafting is here for everyone, enchantings kills is a must on higher lvls
pure random is bad design if there is no other choice, as I said, Bgr crafts are exactly how its supposed to be
yes, luck is luck, it makes it interesting, ok go craft 60% you can lose you can win...you dont like luck, you just like to farm for your equip/etc, take the 100% rec and craft it

its more like sport not RL (aka casinos, lottery etc)...bad luck man, your team cant have goalman, bad luck armostrong your bicycle cant have tires, bad luck ... etc etc
people quit also id they get annoyed in spending month or years to make money for a single item...not everyone are dorf here, and i like to be able of buy a decent equip when i reach the right level, not spend month to gain only and item, price here are too high, and if gm don't do something, adena buyer and bot will always grown up, and people wants always decent gear, so they start buy adena, then they realize that is just a game, then they quit....it's automatic, so price need to go down and a lot!

yes BordrX, but this is not RL...this is L2 and luck which gives advantages and disadvantages to ppl is bad design, ppl quit becuase of it, ppl are dissapointed, ppl ebay...game is about fun, about having same chances to "win" as others...its not really fun for ppl to fail many times in row

it gives people the same roll of the dice though. 60% for you is 60% for me, we can both fail, we can both succeed, but there's no imbalance in the system to benefit certain players more than others.

And all that character based luck crap. I don't believe in any of that.
i give up in explaining this
I get your point, and I m NOT saying l2 is rl. I m saying that like RL l2 has a financial aspect to it, it's not counter strike where you count kills, to play l2 you need to understand and work the financial aspect of it. It's as simple as that, you think it's bad design, some people will tell you if it wasnt there l2 would have lived a year ...
Lol, funny like the poeple that have the advantage of good luck in L2 defend the current system. No wonder. They would prolly suck haveing "only" average luck.
I'm in the ratios, but I totally agree with Nya. The less there is random in a game, the better. I think the dice roll is the worst obstacle ever.


well that 3 sirra attempts completely bankrupted me



And that's why smart people who isnt doing the crafts for profit just buys the weapon instead of risking playing without a weapon.



Not quite...NORMALLY 3 times 60% chance SHOULD get you at least one success.
Actually STATISTICALLY, 2 60% should give u one success :P
Actually STASTICALLY you could fail 1,803,234 60% crafts in a row :P (ok my calculator claims the chance for that is 0, but he's stupid anyway!)

The chance to fail 3 crafts is like 6,4% and the chance to get at least one succcess is 93,6% so that's just very bad luck tbh.


But enabling 100% crafts for everything would be lame imo. Would take a lot out of the game and devaluate S/S80 quite a bit.
it wouldnt devaluate anything if the 100% recipes would be twice more expansive
should have 100% A Recipe with 3x the mats cost. It better for the market to use up 3x the mats and have 1 sucess cost then to disappear with many fail 60% craft even at 1/2 the needed mats. And greedy and cheap people still have a choice to use 60% craft if they succeed on 1st craft good for them they know the risk. For people to save up for months and fail a 60% craft becuase there is no 100% recipe, and they can't afford to buy the items. usually if you fail 2x60% then it cost more to craft then to buy the darn item at 2-2.5x the price to craft. 60% craft is for people to craft many item to resell. Either add 100% A recipe or give back 60% of mats when fail craft. Without farmer a player only can spoil/seed so much animal bone to make-vop/mithil allow. and manor system can't keep up with the mats due to all the poof 60% -70% craft mats go bye bye.

[
So basically you were greedy and wanted to make some huge profits. As in real finance, the highest rewards usually carry the highest risk.

The moral of the story is if you can't afford to fail, don't do it.




i still have aboot 55 mil in straight adena and i made aboot 20 more over the weekend. i can afford to fail...it's just completely disappointing.

and no, i really wasn't crafting for profit. it was for my TK. i was expecting 2/3 to work, i was going to keep one, sell the other and try again 3/4 more times and keep going until i got a masterwork in a few years.

the other thing that these people just keep seeming to miss...where am i going to buy a sirra? they're acting like i can just find one in giran 24/7.

i also think the people who are defending the dice roll aren't exactly playing fair...not accusing anyone in particular. it's just something i've noticed over the years.
sometime when you're stuck in a rut, you have to pray your way out ! :)
You guys just don't get it... it's an actual, statistically quantifiable 60% success guaranteed... but the 60% success guarantee is reserved for the Korean servers so the 40% failure is levied on the NA servers... doh! :eek:


You guys just don't get it... it's an actual, statistically quantifiable 60% success guaranteed... but the 60% success guarantee is reserved for the Korean servers so the 40% failure is levied on the NA servers... doh!



lol

ok lemmie try and explain how random crap kills L2

at 5x i decided to make an overenchanted homu for some extra cash. i grabbed 9 poleaxe's and proceeded to blow 8 of them going for +4 a buddy of mine who OEs for a living said i should +5 the final one since i failed so many already but i warned him if i did it would blow... and it did, he said if i failed he would make me another +4 and of course he went and bought 1 poleaxe and +4ed it first try

at 6x i gathered all the 60% BW helm recs i had got big boomin and proceeded to fail all 8 of them one after the next
statistics say i had a better chance of succeeding all 8 than failing 6/8
if they all had succeeded i would have been about 100 mil richer (i think can't remember prices)

at 76 i done the smart thing to do which is to enchant my summon to +1 for a huge boost to stats, it was hardly a choice for what i should do, have a +0 lvl 72 summon or a +1 lvl 76 summon
it failed 3 times in a row before going to +1 @ 87% success rate costing me about 8% xp (cant remember) and 9 million adena for new books
statistics on this is pretty easy - 87% chance it would succeed first go great chance 1/2 would succeed awesome chance 1/3 would succeed

at 75 i done the I.T quest spending days killing mobs for 2 random recs.... i got basalt hammer rec and dragon hunter axe for a value of about 6 mil, if i had got drac, saint spear and arcana recs it would have been about 100 mil

at 77.8ish i finally managed to finish ketra quest after waiting months for someone to invite me to the raids, i can't remember how many boxes i got but i think the statistics said i should have gotten 3 sets of adena and X amount of recs, i got 6 sets of adena a full set of arcana recs and 1 IC shield rec
statistics say i have a better chance of getting drac and IC recs and if the arcana recs had all been either i would have walked away with about 300 mil at the time but instead i had 20 mil of arcana crap and a shield which i failed

at 78 my crap +1 hammer crush was slowing me down since most of my pvp targets were 78 at the time so i needed at least +7 to give me a chance
i failed the first time at +2 @ 95% chance and then proceeded to fail +1 @ 97%
next 4 attempts all failed going for +6 @ 88% chance so when i done the next one to +5 thats where it stayed - at this point i have given up trying to develop my character further and frustration is starting to set in

a while after that i dinged 79 (which wasn't easy spending so much xp on enchants fighting wartags with crap OE skills)
i got 9% into lvl and decided it would be a good time to try and advance my toon past having lvl 76/77 skills and low A grade gear, i gathered up 600 million adena (at the time it cost me 3-6 mil a day to xp) to buy a set of IC (flipping coins for crafts was no longer an option) but after killing all 9% of my xp and still not getting a single skill past +5 i was done with flipping coins, i spent the next 2 weeks logging in and setting up shop or playing at the arena then logging out until i decided i was done with L2 and quit and that's why i've been gone the past year

when i came back i decided the smart thing to do would be to +1 armor crush since it is the only skill i ever use in pve and if i wanted to speed up lvling so i can fail some more enchants it was the best bet
it failed the first 5 times which isn't surprising considering it's a 48% success rate however having to spend 1.4% at 79 for a coin flip chance to advance a skill past it's original learn lvl of 77 hurt
the next time i +ed it i figured a good idea would be to line up 3 enchants at once so hopefully one would succeed so i gathered up all the mats for 2 basalts and grinded myself past the 1.4% mark and all i can say is YAY!!! +1 armor crush ><

it took 6 fire stones to get lvl 1 fire on my weapon, if elemental weapon enchants are 50% like ppl say then the odds of that happening are almost the same as getting +1 armor crush however having my friend tell me that he and his fiance succeeded their first 5 (maybe 8?) shows how awesome L2 random is to character progression
in total i have failed 26 out of 30 elemental enchants which again if it's 50% is a pretty big deviation

just so this isn't all doom and gloom these are the times i beat the odds
although i failed the crap out of enchanting the golem at lower +'s when i came back i went +5 - +9 on the first try (over 2 weeks) which does kinda beat the odds
i succeeded about 18/25 S grade jewelery crafts and 1/2 jewelry enchants. again not too impressive but compared to the other stuff it starts to look pretty good

so to sum up i don't believe in luck, most of us have done at least basic statistics and know how this crap works and even my basic understanding of C allows me to know what a rng should and shouldn't do. on pts i would get 3 weapons and most of the time two would go to +4 and the other would smash into tiny crystals
in real life when i flip a coin i am surprised if i get 5 heads in a row (but it happens), when i roll a dice i am amazed if i roll 6's 4 times in a row (but it does happen) but in L2 i think nothing when i fail 3 90+% enchants and 5 +4's one after the other.
in 5 minuets i can write the code for a rng that will give a fairly even distribution of heads and tails or 60% good ^^ and 40% bad :( and i will guarantee that when i use it i won't use it for months getting large deviations while the guy next to me is getting the right odds
in all of the cases i listed (and there are more trust me) the odds of getting a good outcome "YAY!! good rec" or "YAY!! +1 skill/weapon enchant" are higher than the odds of a bad outcome of "boo. bad rec" or "boo. enchant fail -xp/adena" so in an alternate dimension or on another server there is another dorf who could have started at exactly the same time as me but is higher lvl, with better skills, with better gear and more money not because he beat the odds but because when he flipped the coin it actually had a 50% chance of landing heads and not a 25% chance

when i do quit L2 for good it won't be because there are 2 bots for every mob or the fact that a dagger/archer/mage who just bought their toon and ebayed their gear can 2 hit me at -20 lvls it will be because every time i want to progress my toon to the next lvl i need to flip a coin with 3 sets of heads and 1 tails
Im jealous I didnt post your reply Nan....100% agree with what you said there at the end.
something else i've noticed about korean random:

almost every time the mobs pop an ss and hit me...it crits. what's up with that? anyone else notice that? not that it matters for a temple knight's rediculously high p.dgf in pve, though.
I think most of these claims about luck in the game come from pretty basic human psychology.
You are much more likely to make mental note of streaks of bad events than streaks of good events. I tried this once, wrote down notes for every single thing i did which had a chance based success rate, at the end of the month I felt like I had had horrible luck, but in reality i was within 2% of the stated chances of success, The bad events just stood out in my memory much more than the positive ones.

Edit: Another example. When the CT2 PTS was around, I heard from some friends that they'd found a way to enchant weapons safely, I never believed in these things, but since the PTS was up I could try it out for free, so I gave it a try, and it actually felt like it was working, I got some weapons really high before they broke. But then when i was bored and thought about what I had actually done, added the number of unsafe enchants together and the number of fails, I ended up with nearly a perfect 1/3 fails and 2/3 succeeded. Goes to show how bad your mind is at statistics.


I think most of these claims about luck in the game come from pretty basic human psychology.
You are much more likely to make mental note of streaks of bad events than streaks of good events. I tried this once, wrote down notes for every single thing i did which had a chance based success rate, at the end of the month I felt like I had had horrible luck, but in reality i was within 2% of the stated chances of success, The bad events just stood out in my memory much more than the positive ones.


i'm well aware of the psychology of bad luck it's the same thing that makes ppl think they are psychic by guessing a lotto number or winning race horse while forgetting the fact they failed to guess the last 50 and the ppl that think their house is haunted because they hear a noise at night while forgetting they hear the same sound a billion times everyday

i don't believe in luck irl. there are 2 types of outcomes in any seemingly random event, those which happen well within the statistical norm and those which deviate from the average
i don't think god hates me so he makes everything i do in L2 fail so i should just go /slit wrist but i do think that my toon has an in built bad luck
i actually did a term paper aboot how humans, women in particular, define themselves through suffering, adversity, and pain.
Nana,you realy unlucky :(
But must of "random" can be avoided.
You can always buy crafted, overenchanted item, with added elemental atributes. The only place where you need some luck - augumentations.
Quest rewards... Its not random in IT. Why you didnt complete 4s quest and then choose S weapon recipe? Clan/ally/friends didnt help you? Well, its your problem.
Or go to FOG, and choose recipe for 1200 quest items.
Skill enchants? We already have new giants book for it. x3 xp/sp. But no more +5 -> fail -> +0 series. Only +5 -> fail -> still +5.

Random is random. Do you have any offers, how random can become "better"? Are you sure your offer isnt exploitable?
Remove random at all? Now thats would be nonsence.

You can always buy crafted, overenchanted item, with added elemental atributes.

Remove random at all? Now thats would be nonsence.




k...you come on sayha and sell me a +16 landslide sirra's blade with SA. i'm waiting.


no randomness? that's not crazy. that's wow. too bad that game is so highly unsuccessful, huh?

I think most of these claims about luck in the game come from pretty basic human psychology.
You are much more likely to make mental note of streaks of bad events than streaks of good events.


Not only that. If something has 99% chance to succeed and 1000 people try it, about 10 of them will fail (and cry a lot).
if you've played PSU, when you grind a weapon from 0 to 1, there's no chance of failure.

i failed it.

.

.

.

gm's gave me my weapon back because the chances were more than a hundred million to one. they said with the coding of their enchant system, they can't make 0 to 1 a 100% or people can exploit it since there's a semi-controllable 'luck' system and different success-rate enchants, etc.


You can always buy crafted, overenchanted item, with added elemental atributes.

Remove random at all? Now thats would be nonsence.




k...you come on sayha and sell me a +16 landslide sirra's blade with SA. i'm waiting.


no randomness? that's not crazy. that's wow. too bad that game is so highly unsuccessful, huh?



Cost of such weapon would be the same like s80 set I guess (cause u need OE rare weapons, or use BEWA), and there is no point to make such weapon. Cause A grade cant be enchanted with elemental attributes.
Landslide effect can be nice, but I think FB+5+SA+150 element dmg is much more effective and realistic. If you want stun so much, try get chance augumentation.

L2 is designed to have randomness. What do you want? 100% crafts? 100% enchents? 100% skill enchants? That would be unbalanced as hell.


gm's gave me my weapon back because the chances were more than a hundred million to one. they said with the coding of their enchant system, they can't make 0 to 1 a 100% or people can exploit it since there's a semi-controllable 'luck' system and different success-rate enchants, etc.


Thats reminds me one article I read long time ago. About random in MMO's.
1) Why MMO's need semi-controllable random?
Example - lets say player has 70% chance to hit the mob. There is chance, that player will miss 10 hits in a row. But chance is quite small (0.3^10). The problem with MMO's is - there are a lot of players, and they fight a lot of mobs. So, even if event has very low chance to happend for 1 player in 1 fight, the chance that such event occurs server-width is high.
And if after death player drops his precious armor...
So MMO's need some "controllable" random.
2) WTF is controllable random?
lets lok to another example. You have deck of cards. What is your chance to draw ace of spades? 1/24 of course.
Now lets draw card. Random method is:
1. Draw card.
2. Put card back to deck.
3. Go to 1.
"Controllable" random example:
1. Draw card.
2. Put card to another deck.
3. If deck is empty, shuffle cards.
4. Go to 1.
Where is the difference? Lets draw 240 cards with each method.
Method 1 - most likely, we got 10 aces of spades. But we can get any number between 0 - 240.
Method 2 - we got EXACTLY 10 aces of spades.
3) "Controllable" random is so good/cool/fair method, why dont we use it?
Because its exploitable. Its np if we use "controllable" random when calculating hit/miss thing. But use it in craft system... Thats not such good idea. System wont work perfectly (like in serelina example), or it can be exploited. Or both.


L2 is designed to have randomness. What do you want? 100% crafts? 100% enchents? 100% skill enchants? That would be unbalanced as hell.


How?
again bigGuy, what is unbalanced on Bgr crafts...60% for riskenjoying ppl who can afford risk
100% which are much more exansive,e specialy for S80 it would be really expansive...but no risk invovled, so where is the problem
Um, lets think.
I have big excel sheet. IMHO top B weapons would be cheaper, if 100% recipes didnt exist. Now item price = 100% craft price+ profit. 60% B crafts is pure profit, even if craft with 50% (not 60%).
The idea is, if item is CRAFT ONLY, full item price is always > item craft100% price. Even if we can attempt 3 crafts60% for 1 craft100% price.
Simple logic (for 60% crafts).
if(craft100price > craft60price/0.6)
do craft60;
else
do craft100;
Simple calculations shows, that 100% crafts are "profitable" when key materials are very expensive (if we exclude recipe price)
Lets go back to crafting.
Most A parts are cheap. Why they are cheap? Because it drops in all high lvl hunting grounds, and we BURN them to slow. Why we burn A parts to slow? Because recipes/simple mate are harder to get/cost more. If A craft100%recipes will be introduced, we will need even more simple materials, and less key materials.
With S its prety much the same.
Now about S80. I tell you a little secret. S80 recipes/parts are not so hard to get, after you complete the quest. The quest it *** hard, and cost a lot. I know one person, who has enough quest items for 2x Dinasty heavy craft attempts. But he still need quest, and orichalcium. Orichalcium requiments are sick compared to drop rate. heavy armor alone requires 156 or smth similar. If 100% recipe with lets say 400 orich would be added... situation would become worse.
1st: HI NYA!!!

2nd: I havent found a better way really in L2 to make money other than Crafting... This is just for me personally.. Ive OE'd things here and there for fun, (currently i +5'd a Heavens Divider) but I dont rely on OE'ing weapons.

But as for crafting, If you do it correctly you should be able t oget your desired gear relatively cheaply. It mite take you a while.. but you can..

For example) Recently i crafted arcana boots/helm and Drac LA.
Now, i could have gone to vakra or orcs, done the quest and gotten the recs.. It would have taken time and all but i would have been exp'ing and i would have gotten them for free. Financially, it doesnt affect me so i Just bought the recs. You can say the same about mats.. YOu can go out and farm the mats(bone/iron ore/etc) or you can just buy them.. Buying mats and what not make your craft more expensive, but its just less time consuming. If you dont buy your mats, and u farm everything. Crafts are relatively cheap. I personally think that if you faila a craft your should be able to get partial mats back, or partial crystal value back.

OE'ing success: I find that if at ne time your oe would cause you to not be able to play The game ne more, you shouldnt do it. However, in that i find a flaw in NCSoft in which it promotes us to find other means of supporting our adena need...(ebaying/w.e)

Idk if im wrong here, but ive just not found a great way to make money other than crafting, and im that guy in FOG all day... lol..
Not sure what is your point bigGuy.
For S80, i know exactly what is needed and how hard is it, I have crafted first robe set on teon and we are crafting heavy set for friend right now.
its acutaly around 400 ori if you dont fail single item and i failed whole set before i crafted one, not that i care that much anyway, i am still around the 60% of all crafts for me...

100% craft would solve lot of things for ppl who dont like the risk, who are "unlucky", yes it would change economy a bit is that a problem, its not about if something is expansive or cheap, its about "unlucky" ppl who fail too much and cant even reach the "top" because of pure random, which is bad for compettive game imo, and ppl quit cuz of that

there are better ways how to maintain the adena sinks, how to keep some fun for risk-loving ppl etc etc, and still keep the "unlucky" guys in game without beeing gimped by some pseudorandom generator

hello relinquish :)

Simple logic (for 60% crafts).
if(craft100price > craft60price/0.6)
do craft60;
else
do craft100;



Only if you have the infinite supply of mats and craft in big batches.

Simple arithmetics: the chance to fail 3 60% crafts in a row is 6.4%, which means that every ~15-th player will not be able to get the item even after 3 crafting attempts.
Krissa, exactly. Its common mistake. We dont have 100% recipes for A/S. But a lot of ppl try 60% weapon or expensive armor crafts from "last cents". 40% of them fail and go cry :(
it's been my experience that the people with big real-life pocket books are the only ones to defend the broken economy of l2.
rich get more rich
poor get more poor
is basic of L2 economy :)
Its broken not by design. Its because of players.

About me - I have about 600m adena now. I craft only Tateossian (for profit) and IC boots/gloves/helms (want get rare ones). Never crafted S weapon so far, because risk to big.
I have equip and adena for like 25-30bil and still i think that there is too much random in L2 and it is not good for the game. And the 100%+60% recipes (100%+x% chance for everything, except stuff like crits/misses etc where it doesnt really matter that much) should be here.

there is too much random in L2 and it is not good for the game

There's the point of this thread (and everyone like it) summed up quiet nicely. :)


there is too much random in L2 and it is not good for the game

There's the point of this thread (and everyone like it) summed up quiet nicely. :)



I think this what makes the game unique. And tbh, it's not so hard to craft in la2. Just get your own book and craft. i.e. I crafted 20 Meteor Showers in a row, and I got exactly 12 meteor showers (60%). So... what RANDOM are u talking about? just craft from YOUR own book.

i.e. I crafted 20 Meteor Showers in a row, and I got exactly 12 meteor showers (60%).



Well then gratz to you. Nevertheless, I'm sure someone can actually try craft 20 meteor showers and fail all 20 of them coz of this "unique". But I think most would've quit already after 10 fails in a row :D


rich get more rich
poor get more poor
is basic of L2 economy :)



and unlucky ones are just simply screwed :p
the thing is that before I crafted those 20 MS, I failed very many things in a row (I really don't find it useful to wright all the things I've failed). But I failed only the ones which were not in my book. And when u craft from a crafter in Giran - it's his luck not YOURS (I'd prefer the word "percentage" instead of luck). This is exactly what I was doing when I failed many things in a row. I decided to check this theory out and I set a shop for "S" gear/armor for 100adena a piece. After 3 failings of Draconic bow I stood up, crafted Draconic bow successfully, set up a shop again, waited for 3 consecutive failings and crafted draconic bow again. It worked just fine for me and it is working fine for me now, when I want to craft smth. I still do the same :p
It's all random and it will all be random is my guess.

Yesterday i crafted 2 A grade crafts and they both failed.

Luck has it that it did not make that big of a dent in my economy.

Luck has it that it did not make that big of a dent in my economy.



That would be calculation, not luck. Or did you only check after the 2 fails how much money you actually have left? :p
the 100% recipes are in the game already they just don't drop from anything. just like all the random b grade armor stuff was in the game since c2 but implosion boots just didn't drop anywhere.

this is sort of the same argument why i quit PSU...the content is on the disc but you can't play it until they unlock it. stupid, eh?

I crafted 20 Meteor Showers in a row, and I got exactly 12 meteor showers (60%).


so did you get a foundation one?
I crafted a foundation s80 dynasty circlet. :(

Foundation on armor items is like an extra chance to fail, and it's not like s80 is cheap to craft in the first place. :<


I crafted 20 Meteor Showers in a row, and I got exactly 12 meteor showers (60%).


so did you get a foundation one?



no, man. it was like 6-8 months ago. On New Ear's eve to be exact.