i know that is just obvious
but i mean for those who actually have crafted a lot and can say.
"out of 4 tries broke 3 and success 1" or something like that.
dont need math class already know what % knows, but its like i said on over enchanting 1/3 chance to fail try 1st and fail, then 2nd, fail, 3rd, fail, 4th fail, and 5th get a sucessful enchant.
and i know if i fail i get nothing, but i want to know if i actually lose ALL materials
in my case out 3 A grade weapons I have try 2 of them fail. But ever since Gracia came out my luck has increase a lot for instance before Gracia every single OE I tried use to fail going to +4 and so far I have
+5 C duals
+5 B duals
+4 A duals
+4 A shirt
Success on DLE craft
and I nave not had any fail in between those OE's.
It may be the fact that I did all that on my sub and not on the main BH but I don't know
I've posted somewhere on this forum my craft info, but anyway, here it is again:
20 MS (meteor showers) in a row = 12 crafted 8 failed. which is exactly 60%.
all of my success rates are about 50% of what is advertised
i listed alot of my fails in another thread but from today:
blew 6 berzerkers to get 1 to +4
blew 7 underwear to get 2 to +4
My luck is so bad when it comes to enchanting that clannies threaten to pk me if I even mention wanting to do it. I can't even get a d grade weapon to +4! but I keep trying so I guess they should sign me up for Enchanters Anonymous!
If a player does not keep detailed records of attempts/fails/successes, then anything they post is just their impressions. Their impressions are based less on the facts than on their outlook - are they an optimist or a pessimist? Do they tend toward whining and complaining (understating the success rate) or is everything springtime and daiseys and they overstate the rate.
Regardless of someone's opinions, the craft will succeed 6/10 of the time. If your sample size is large enough, that will be clear.
I seriously doubt each toon has their own random number stream. You'd have to keep records server-wide. And, I would bet that the random number stream for enchanting and crafting is shared with other random events.
ok lemmie try and explain how random crap kills L2
at 5x i decided to make an overenchanted homu for some extra cash. i grabbed 9 poleaxe's and proceeded to blow 8 of them going for +4 a buddy of mine who OEs for a living said i should +5 the final one since i failed so many already but i warned him if i did it would blow... and it did, he said if i failed he would make me another +4 and of course he went and bought 1 poleaxe and +4ed it first try
at 6x i gathered all the 60% BW helm recs i had got big boomin and proceeded to fail all 8 of them one after the next
statistics say i had a better chance of succeeding all 8 than failing 6/8
if they all had succeeded i would have been about 100 mil richer (i think can't remember prices)
at 76 i done the smart thing to do which is to enchant my summon to +1 for a huge boost to stats, it was hardly a choice for what i should do, have a +0 lvl 72 summon or a +1 lvl 76 summon
it failed 3 times in a row before going to +1 @ 87% success rate costing me about 8% xp (cant remember) and 9 million adena for new books
statistics on this is pretty easy - 87% chance it would succeed first go great chance 1/2 would succeed awesome chance 1/3 would succeed
at 75 i done the I.T quest spending days killing mobs for 2 random recs.... i got basalt hammer rec and dragon hunter axe for a value of about 6 mil, if i had got drac, saint spear and arcana recs it would have been about 100 mil
at 77.8ish i finally managed to finish ketra quest after waiting months for someone to invite me to the raids, i can't remember how many boxes i got but i think the statistics said i should have gotten 3 sets of adena and X amount of recs, i got 6 sets of adena a full set of arcana recs and 1 IC shield rec
statistics say i have a better chance of getting drac and IC recs and if the arcana recs had all been either i would have walked away with about 300 mil at the time but instead i had 20 mil of arcana crap and a shield which i failed
at 78 my crap +1 hammer crush was slowing me down since most of my pvp targets were 78 at the time so i needed at least +7 to give me a chance
i failed the first time at +2 @ 95% chance and then proceeded to fail +1 @ 97%
next 4 attempts all failed going for +6 @ 88% chance so when i done the next one to +5 thats where it stayed - at this point i have given up trying to develop my character further and frustration is starting to set in
a while after that i dinged 79 (which wasn't easy spending so much xp on enchants fighting wartags with crap OE skills)
i got 9% into lvl and decided it would be a good time to try and advance my toon past having lvl 76/77 skills and low A grade gear, i gathered up 600 million adena (at the time it cost me 3-6 mil a day to xp) to buy a set of IC (flipping coins for crafts was no longer an option) but after killing all 9% of my xp and still not getting a single skill past +5 i was done with flipping coins, i spent the next 2 weeks logging in and setting up shop or playing at the arena then logging out until i decided i was done with L2 and quit and that's why i've been gone the past year
when i came back i decided the smart thing to do would be to +1 armor crush since it is the only skill i ever use in pve and if i wanted to speed up lvling so i can fail some more enchants it was the best bet
it failed the first 5 times which isn't surprising considering it's a 48% success rate however having to spend 1.4% at 79 for a coin flip chance to advance a skill past it's original learn lvl of 77 hurt
the next time i +ed it i figured a good idea would be to line up 3 enchants at once so hopefully one would succeed so i gathered up all the mats for 2 basalts and grinded myself past the 1.4% mark and all i can say is YAY!!! +1 armor crush ><
it took 6 fire stones to get lvl 1 fire on my weapon, if elemental weapon enchants are 50% like ppl say then the odds of that happening are almost the same as getting +1 armor crush however having my friend tell me that he and his fiance succeeded their first 5 shows how awesome L2 random is to character progression
in total i have failed 26 out of 30 elemental enchants which again if it's 50% is a pretty big deviation
just so this isn't all doom and gloom these are the times i beat the odds
although i failed the crap out of enchanting the golem at lower +'s when i came back i went +5 - +9 on the first try (over 2 weeks) which does kinda beat the odds
i succeeded about 18/25 S grade jewelery crafts and 1/2 jewelry enchants. again not too impressive but compared to the other stuff it starts to look pretty good
so to sum up i don't believe in luck, most of us have done at least basic statistics and know how this crap works and even my basic understanding of C allows me to know what a rng should and shouldn't do. on pts i would get 3 weapons and most of the time two would go to +4 and the other would smash into tiny crystals
in real life when i flip a coin i am surprised if i get 5 heads in a row (but it happens), when i roll a dice i am amazed if i roll 6's 4 times in a row (but it does happen) but in L2 i think nothing when i fail 3 90+% enchants and 5 +4's one after the other.
in 5 minuets i can write the code for a rng that will give a fairly even distribution of heads and tails or 60% good ^^ and 40% bad and i will guarantee that when i use it i won't use it for months getting large deviations while the guy next to me is getting the right odds
in all of the cases i listed (and there are more trust me) the odds of getting a good outcome "YAY!! good rec" or "YAY!! +1 skill/weapon enchant" are higher than the odds of a bad outcome of "boo. bad rec" or "boo. enchant fail -xp/adena" so in an alternate dimension or on another server there is another dorf who could have started at exactly the same time as me but is higher lvl, with better skills, with better gear and more money not because he beat the odds but because when he flipped the coin it actually had a 50% chance of landing heads and not a 25% chance
when i do quit L2 for good it won't be because there are 2 bots for every mob or the fact that a dagger/archer/mage who just bought their toon and ebayed their gear can 2 hit me at -20 lvls it will be because every time i want to progress my toon to the next lvl i need to flip a coin with 3 sets of heads and 1 tails
i'm well aware of the psychology of bad luck, it's the same thing that makes ppl think they are psychic by guessing a lotto number or winning race horse while forgetting the fact they failed to guess the last 50 and the ppl that think their house is haunted because they hear a noise at night while forgetting they hear the same sound a billion times everyday
i don't believe in luck irl. there are 2 types of outcomes in any seemingly random event, those which happen well within the statistical norm and those which deviate from the average
i don't think god hates me so he makes everything i do in L2 fail so i should just go /slit wrist but i do think that my toon has an in built bad luck
and to add to that for those that say programmers are lazy and won't bother writing something as complex as "enchant success = enchant success - enchant success * .%" well they managed to find the time to program in big head herbs....
The seed for the pseudo-random function generation has to be somewhat account-based, how would you otherwise explain that some people have like 4 or 5% succes rate and some like never fail?
on d t-shirts i can always get them to +6 but always fail +7
on c weapons i can get to +6 but fail anything afterthat
on b grade havent tested yet
on A grade i have faild 7 dragon grinder crafts out of 7
i have failed 3 elysian out of 3
i have failed 2 dragon slayer crafts out of 2
i have a 100% sucess rate on crafting a grade boots 0.o
i have also failed on the following going to +4 (6)-dama*tallum
(4) soul bow (2) dragon grinderrs
with that said i never give up and still always try anyways
its just time invested only craft what u can afford to fail and only Oe what u can afford to loose.
I find the fails go in "spurts". I failed 2 SoM crafts, 1 Drac LA craft, an Elysian and 2 Lances 2 weeks ago. Last night I successfully crafted 2 S grade weapons and 2 S armors in a row so go figure. Bottom line is its Sh*# luck and thats all.
and to add to that for those that say programmers are lazy and won't bother writing something as complex as "enchant success = enchant success - enchant success * .5" well they managed to find the time to program in big head herbs....
again
but keep in mind that if there is a luck based system in L2 it would have been coded before the game even went live if anything
and once again
on PTS i had no problem enchanting and crafting crap
if something said it was 60% it would work about 60% of the time, sure sometimes i would fail 10 things in a row but eventually there would be a balance of 10 succeeds or at least an increase in my average to get me closer to the 60% mark
on live there is no balance to my fails
when i fail 10 +4 weapon enchants i don't come back a month later and succeed 10, if anything i fail another 10
You will laugh, but I actually find my "odds" increase when I pay to craft vs crafting straight outta my book. Weird I know, but sofar its working out a lot closer to the 60% mark.
The seed for the pseudo-random function generation has to be somewhat account-based, how would you otherwise explain that some people have like 4 or 5% succes rate and some like never fail?
Because those people who fail a lot will whine about it, those who hit around 60% wont really say anything and those who get lucky will brag.
if you look at it statistically, some will have un/lucky streaks like this, its just that the people who do are much more likely to tell you about it, which creates an illusion that it happens more often than it does.
You will laugh, but I actually find my "odds" increase when I pay to craft vs crafting straight outta my book. Weird I know, but sofar its working out a lot closer to the 60% mark.
Man I shall tell you something. As soon as you start crafting ONLY from your book, and ONLY YOU will craft everything - you can nottice exactly 60% success. There's no doubt of it.
You will laugh, but I actually find my "odds" increase when I pay to craft vs crafting straight outta my book. Weird I know, but sofar its working out a lot closer to the 60% mark.
Man I shall tell you something. As soon as you start crafting ONLY from your book, and ONLY YOU will craft everything - you can nottice exactly 60% success. There's no doubt of it.
I've posted somewhere on this forum my craft info, but anyway, here it is again:
20 MS (meteor showers) in a row = 12 crafted 8 failed. which is exactly 60%.
Did craft 20 Sealed Majestic Circlets in a row, 15 succeeded and 5 failed (and of the 15 two was rare crafts).
That means in those crafts it was a 75% successrate. At other times I've had 100% successrate out of 6 crafts on 70% recipes (Sealed Majestic Necklace), at other times 0% sucessrate (3 failed Sealed Majestic Leather Armors in a row).
If math would say that your crafts SHOULD give you 60% successrate, that also means you should not be able to get higher successrate.
But since crafting (and enchanting) works on a per-item basis, you can get all failed or all succeeded, even if the rate is supposed to be 60%/70% on crafts and 2/3rd chance success on OE, all can still fail, since from what I know there is no global number counting towards that if you've had this amount of fails you'd get that amount of successes.
It basically always boils down to this, 60%/70% chance per recipe, not 60% of every single craft you've ever made, as simple as that (so you can still fail every recipe out of 10 in a row, or even more if unlucky).
Given a sufficient amount of crafts the success rate will approach 0,6 calculated over all crafts you ever did.
What makes the system pretty harsh in L2 is that most people are not able to do a "sufficient" amount of tries at once, so the deviation can be very high because your sample size is very small. (e.g. if you throw a coin 2 times it's quite likely that you get tails two times (25% chance) which means 100%:0% probability for tails/heads. But if you throw it 10000 times the probability will be pretty much 50%:50%)
Yes, that's the problem, you shouldn't have to make literally hundreds or thousands of crafts before you start to even se something close to a total of 60% success-rate. I don't know how the craft-systems work in other MMO's, but there must be some better way for that...
Yes, that's the problem, you shouldn't have to make literally hundreds or thousands of crafts before you start to even se something close to a total of 60% success-rate. I don't know how the craft-systems work in other MMO's, but there must be some better way for that...
I agree. What they have now can literally break a player in this game, and has probably done so many times already.
Yes, that's the problem, you shouldn't have to make literally hundreds or thousands of crafts before you start to even se something close to a total of 60% success-rate. I don't know how the craft-systems work in other MMO's, but there must be some better way for that...
So basically you're saying crafting should not be chance based. Because that's what chance is, uncertainty.
The alternative is that all recipe's become 100% and have the mat's increased by 67% to compensate for the guarantee on crafting.
i'm told the koreans have the 100% recipes for all a grade available already.
i agree with 60% for s grade because that's, in most cases, a deal-breaker in this game to kill or be killed. but ncsoft has basically said that this game doesn't start until you're s grade anyway so i don't see why we should be penalized further than s grade.
not to mention with the vitality system, anyone new coming into the game will be in avadon/zubei until their 70's. they're making far more xp but in far less time to make money while they're doing so...not taking marketing into account (in-game buying/selling and *cough* out.)