I know they only work on bound gear, but so far (element) Stone Fragment have failed 100%
Tried 5 earth fragments on weapon yesterday, all failed
Tried 2 wind fragments on legs today, all failed
So, the question is, do they ever not fail?
Market price for frags atm is around 600k while "normal" stones around 1,2 mill, but normal stones rarely to never fail
I know they only work on bound gear, but so far (element) Stone Fragment have failed 100%
Tried 5 earth fragments on weapon yesterday, all failed
Tried 2 wind fragments on legs today, all failed
So, the question is, do they ever not fail?
Market price for frags atm is around 600k while "normal" stones around 1,2 mill, but normal stones rarely to never fail
All of mine have failed. I thought it was just me.
The price of the fragments are going to tank by a lot once people start figuring out the success rate with them, and they'll find a medium in the market. Right now it almost seems like they're roughly 10-25% success rate from what people are saying, so they're probably going to fall pretty dramatically in price because people hate failing, and the instance exp is so good that people are going to keep doing it.
Correct. I've been running the solo instance on 3 toons daily and giving all the bound fragments to my one toon that has bound gear. All but 3 have failed. So that's like 3 of 12 or so that have succeeded. I think you get 2 per run when fragments pop, except I did get a few normal stones from it.
The success rate is laugable to the point that paying for those is a waste of adena considering the normal ones literally much never fail now.
Welcome to Korean random. I've seen crystals fail 21/22 times in a row, I've seen 8 weapon crafts at 60% success rate fail in a row, I've seen 30/33 jewel crafts SUCCEED at a 70% rate. Stones and fragments are probably the same exact way. Not shocked :3
When i saw the stone cheaper than the 'real' one i decided to give it a try, bought a pack of 20 (at 600k~/each) and got something like 80% of success.
I felt i could push my luck and finish my 3x60 faster, i bought 80 more stone and the success dropped to something like 60-65% ~
When i saw the stone cheaper than the 'real' one i decided to give it a try, bought a pack of 20 (at 600k~/each) and got something like 80% of success.
I felt i could push my luck and finish my 3x60 faster, i bought 80 more stone and the success dropped to something like 60-65% ~
I guess i was lucky so
I'll be trying about 10-20 or so Wednesday, hopefully i can get around 60% success. I can live with that, but if it's much lower buying regular stones is going to be a lot more cost efficient than trying your luck with the fragments.
i made 2x S80 weapon from 0 to 300 attribute, used 60 and 62 stones and 76 and 81 crystals. cool?
the time came for me to make 2x R grade .used super 150 on both and only 41 and 43 crystals.
its pretty lame to talk about chances only with this: "Tried 10, failed 10."
i made 2x S80 weapon from 0 to 300 attribute, used 60 and 62 stones and 76 and 81 crystals. cool?
the time came for me to make 2x R grade .used super 150 on both and only 41 and 43 crystals.
its pretty lame to talk about chances only with this: "Tried 10, failed 10."
You're using that quote out of context, but if you want to talk statistics I can give you this. There is a 1 in 1024 chance of failing 10 out of 10 if the chance of success is 50%. From my very limited sample of 10 it can only be concluded that it's not impossible, but improbable that the success rate of attribute frags is 50%. This is assuming that we are using true random and not korean random with inherent statistical noise. Which we are not, which was my point in the first place.
I've tried the fragments to my weapon, and i failed about 40 (maybe one or two was successfull, but i'm not so sure) from 40. The story with the armors is different, there IS success rate, about 30% or so
I have always harbored little theories about L2's 'random' success rates. To the point of certain baseball players' superstitious routines before pitching or batting, I've tried clicking the options with different timings or before or after certain other commands... (and I still use some of them, lol) I don't believe that L2's chances are truly mathematically random, because I have done many enchants on many private servers (that did not alter the enchant rates).
That being said, if it is "truly" random, each occurrence is not related to any other occurrence. Suspicious as it may be, you can have one guy who succeeds 20 in a row, and the next guy lose 100 in a row--there's no rule in randomness that states you have to succeed after failing a certain number of times. A computer's random is not spread out and even like a human's random is.
Yes, I understand the rules of probability, and I know how to multiply to get the insane chance of failing x times in a row at a y chance at succeeding. But unless you know how to isolate and analyze the code that the enchant system uses, you cannot prove that failing 20 enchants in a row isn't just winning the lottery in reverse.
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~Rj
=)
Pserver experience doesn't rly come in the discussion so it isn't a very valid point of experience....
As you might know mage weapons always were shown to have less enchant rate than fighter weapons, acording to l2lab (i think that's the name?) but this situation was not noticable in Pservers, so this "randomness" might be diferent by official server's standards.