Lab Test 45 - Enchanting an Elemental Shirt to +7

Item Tested: Eva's Shirt
Important Note: This test is to show the fate of an elemental shirt when enchanted to +7. It does not give a precise enchant rate and the test results may differ from your own enchant experience. Enchanting to +3 has a 100% chance of success.
Number of Test Trials: 3

Trial #1
Number of Elemental Enchant Shirt Scrolls Used (Trial #1): 96
Enchant Results (Trial #1):
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchanted to +6
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchanted to +6
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchanted to +6
Enchanted to +7 - (96 Elemental Enchant Shirt Scrolls Used)

Price: $120 USD = 9,600 NCoin (100 NCoin/$1.25 per scroll)


Trial #2
Number of Elemental Enchant Shirt Scrolls Used (Trial #2): 59
Enchant Results (Trial #2):
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchanted to +6
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchanted to +6
Enchanted to +7 - (59 Elemental Enchant Shirt Scrolls Used)

Price: $73.75 USD = 5,900 NCoin (100 NCoin/$1.25 per scroll)


Trial #3
Number of Elemental Enchant Shirt Scrolls Used (Trial #3): 126
Enchant Results (Trial #3):
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchanted to +6
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchant Fail
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchanted to +6
Enchanted to +7 - (126 Elemental Enchant Shirt Scrolls Used)

Price: $157.50 USD = 12,600 NCoin (100 NCoin/$1.25 per scroll)

as i expected, this is a deal breaker =)
You would get a lot more customers buying this if you offered normal enchant scrolls cheap since most costs go in getting +3.

In your first test you used 60 scrolls from 96 to get +3
2nd: 36 out of 59
3rd: 75 from 126

60% of all purchased blessed scrolls which are ment for higher then +3 are used to get +3, this is why people hate this item.

What about +8, +9 and +10 ?

60% of all purchased blessed scrolls which are ment for higher then +3 are used to get +3, this is why people hate this item.

This is the problem for me... I spent 150$ and only got three +5 shirts that all blew going 6.

What about +8, +9 and +10 ?

the actual rate is too low to be publicly tested. :o

http://i49.tinypic.com/hx1501.png

were do we get these?

http://i49.tinypic.com/hx1501.png

were do we get these?


All I have to say is WTH... So there are people not paying hundreds of dollars getting +3 over and over while enchanting? Yeah, this is the last time I dump money on this joke of game. Time to enjoy some free to play. I probably spent like 1500 since GOD.

What a joke.

the actual rate is too low to be publicly tested. :o

The rates are not secret at all. They were tested and published by the NCTaiwan Quality Assurance Department on February 9, 2012:
http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/l2_friend/article?mid=28816&prev=29088&next=28587&l=f&fid=5
Draecke posted an English translation on August 8 at 01:51pm, on the very first day of the event, shortly after server restart:
http://boards.lineage2.com/showthread.php?t=243897&page=2#31

For easier reading, let me repost them here:
Enchantment level // success: total number // probability
+3 → +4 55/100 55%
+4 → +5 34/100 34%
+5 → +6 27/100 27%
+6 → +7 25/100 25%
+7 → +8 9/100 9%
+8 → +9 9/100 9%
+9 → +10 1/100 1%

The unhappiness among the player base is only a result of people not understanding what those percentages, in connection with the clearly noted fact that every failed enchantment attempt resets your Shirt to +0, means for their wallet. Insofar it is really great that Juji gave the cost not only in Enchantment Scrolls but also in dollars :)

As Juji has shown, getting a Shirt to +7 will cost you on average ($120.00 + $73.75 + $157.50) / 3 = $117.08.
Now, if you want to know what it will on statistical average cost you to get an Elemental Shirt to +8, you must divide those $117 by the rate for going from +7 to +8. $117 / 0.09 = $1300 for a +8 Shirt. In simple words, with a 10% chance you need 10 attempts, each attempt costing you more than 100 dollars.
The same procedure applies for going to +9. $1300 / 0.09 = $14,444 for a +9 Shirt. For going from +9 to +10 the chance is only 1%. 14,444 / 0.01 = $1,444,400. One point four million US dollar for a +10 Shirt :)

Thanks for this test Juji!

I still believe in it if you would sell the +6 shirts for 6k NCoins the +7 for 7k NCoins etc would take higher success in financial way also the feedbacks would be more positive about it too.

I also can say too, that I have example enough money to buy 7k NCoins what from I can get a +7 Shirt, but I haven't money for 7k NCoins what from maybe I get a +10 shirt or maybe I get a +0 shirt.

Thanks Juji for posting your results, this is a big step forward to regaining the trust of the community.

Yidao - please stop posting those false percentages from that other website, those are not accurate for what we have here in NA.

As for those non blessed scrolls, I hope I can be refunded for all the money I spent using blessed scrolls to get mine to +3. As was shown by a previous poster, that'd be more than half my scrolls back which may give me a shot at +7 shirt again.

Thanks.

Thanks Juji for posting your results, this is a big step forward to regaining the trust of the community.

Yidao - please stop posting those false percentages from that other website, those are not accurate for what we have here in NA ...

We have the same rates ("better than 1/3" for going from +3 to +4). You are just misinterpreting the numbers. ChildOfHeaven started out with 100 Shirts at each step (the "xx/100") :)

That's a mathematical way of looking a things. You might better understand the financial aspect after having read through this:
http://boards.rochand.com/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=857&start=20#p13066
It's the same as what Juji found :)

over $100 for a shirt where you are not sure you'll can hit a +7 :/

Lineage 2 is like a casino game :o

As for those non blessed scrolls, I hope I can be refunded for all the money I spent using blessed scrolls to get mine to +3. As was shown by a previous poster, that'd be more than half my scrolls back which may give me a shot at +7 shirt again.


All regular scrolls has been removed from the servers before the maintenance where those scrolls where applied

All regular scrolls has been removed from the servers before the maintenance where those scrolls where applied

well not all but the few that somehow managed to survive are gone now and pending on how those chars managed to get/keep them after NCWest cleaned all servers those accounts might be banned..

any word if the maphr shirt increases the OE rate by 10/15%? or should i submit a differnt ticket for a test for that

any word if the maphr shirt increases the OE rate by 10/15%? or should i submit a differnt ticket for a test for that
It works like the Lucky Enchant Stones and those can also be stacked together. The shirts and stones increase the base enchant rate when enchanting.

All regular scrolls has been removed from the servers before the maintenance where those scrolls where applied

Handful of them on chronos still also

Its probably in stores somewhere (Insert random npc in random town here) that ncsoft doesn't even know about or somehow showed up in the players inventory. One of the heros on chronos was linking them in shout, the odds of him doing so had he "hacked" "Duped" or w/e to get them are slim...

so Juji what's the deal about the regular scrolls as it seems you guys were not 100% thorough there and this is giving those players in the know/lucky ones that got missed a serious unfair advantage over the rest that are FORCED to used bless scrolls ?

Trial #1
Number of Elemental Enchant Shirt Scrolls Used (Trial #1): 7

Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchanted to +6
Enchanted to +7


WOW. Thats Easy, let buy another one.

Trial #2
Number of Elemental Enchant Shirt Scrolls Used (Trial #2): 25

Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
FAILS!
Enchanted to +3
FAILS!
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchanted to +6
FAILS!
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
FAILS!
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchanted to +6
Enchanted to +7

gRRR. But ok, now is +7 too

Trial #1
Number of Elemental Enchant Shirt Scrolls Used (Trial #1): 7

Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchanted to +6
Enchanted to +7


WOW. Thats Easy, let buy another one.

Trial #2
Number of Elemental Enchant Shirt Scrolls Used (Trial #2): 25

Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
FAILS!
Enchanted to +3
FAILS!
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchanted to +6
FAILS!
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
FAILS!
Enchanted to +3
Enchanted to +4
Enchanted to +5
Enchanted to +6
Enchanted to +7

gRRR. But ok, now is +7 too

Lucky you, some peoples used $200, $500 and maybe more to get a shirt +0 :confused:

-400$ shirt +1 !!!!! i mean dear JUJI if u test something so give normal results i took x4 coins to be sure i will suceed at +7 Now i have +1 even NOOOOooooo chance to get +7 okay ? and why u lie to pplz like this ? . i know all need money but if i decide to suport server and spend some cash on you i expect atleast equal pvp vs those who have **** +7 ! .30+ ncoins guys im asure u not a change to get +7 +6 maybe but not +7.! and im Sooo soooooooo disapointed atm u have no idea. 4x Fooled like a foolish Fool.

I've read almost all the tests here, the strane thing about this one is that even with just 3 atempts, it is considered reliable, while all the other ones with less tha 100 atempts aren't!

What amazes me most is that even Yidao fell to the trap!

So either make 100+ attempts to make it reliable, or it's the 1st fail test of this section. (The other ones have been very helpfull and i thank you Juji for that)

Also, the powershirts are advertised as "+10 power of ...", so please make a test to +10, that would be fun :P

Actually Juji's results are quite normal, in a statistical sense. When you compare ChildOfHeaven's results (http://boards.lineage2.com/showthread.php?t=244200#8), which were done with 100 Shirts each, with the probabilities Colorado calculated from Juji's results, you will see that for +3 > +4, where Juji did many many attempts, they are almost identical. I have a hunch that if Juji did 1000 trials, the chances would work out like this:

Enchantment level // success probability // cost
+3 → +4 50%
+4 → +5 33%
+5 → +6 25%
+6 → +7 25% $100
+7 → +8 10% $1000
+8 → +9 10% $10,000
+9 → +10 1% $1,000,000

But that does not mean that if you invest 1 million dollar you will have your +10 Shirt guaranteed. You can easily find yourself spending 3 or 4 million US dollars for a +10 Shirt, and if luck is not with you, you might look at an investment of more like 20 million dollars. And that's when you must put things in perspective. For 20 million dollars you already get a nice mansion, or for example a Black Hawk helicopter (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sikorsky_UH-60_Black_Hawk), both of which have the advantage that you can sell them on if you should fall on hard times, whereas the Elemental Shirts (http://store.lineage2.com/store/detail?goodsNo=346230&categoryPath=1_7) are not tradeable.

The conclusion to draw from this will be censored by Sace as "non-constructive comment", so let me try to put it another way. Everybody should really read up on binomial distribution:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution
This is how the creator of this universe has set up things to work. If you consider this as sloppy design, which would be a valid point of view, please submit a support ticket with the Celestial Quality Assurance Department of the denomination of your choice.

+3 → +4 50%
+4 → +5 33%
+5 → +6 25%
+6 → +7 25%
+7 → +8 10%
+8 → +9 10%
+9 → +10 1% Assuming that these numbers are correct (since no official deny has been posted after several quotes of them), what do Juji's tests show us? Here is a count i made (maybe there are mistakes, but the result is obvious)

attempt... 1 (%)........ 2 (%)........ 3 (%)......... mean %

+3->+4.. 9/11 (45%)... 5/7 (42%)... 16/9 (64%)... 50%
+4->+5.. 4/5 (44%)... 4/1 (80%)... 8/8 (50%)...... 58%
+5->+6.. 3/1 (75%)... 2/2 (50%)... 2/6 (25%)...... 50%
+6->+7.. 1/2 (33%)... 1/1 (50%)... 1/1 (50%)...... 44%I know this looks like crap but here's what it means:

9/11 is 9 success/11 fails etc. Total 20 tries (9/20 = 45%)
mean % is the mean success rate from the 3 experiments and i want u to compare that with the original stats!

Also to continue with my simple maths, i again take the ChildOfHeaven's results (http://boards.lineage2.com/showthread.php?t=244200#8), and think my probability to make +7 shirt is 25% of +6, which is 25% of +5, which is 33% of +4, which is 50% of +3. So i type in Google: 25% of 25% of 33% of 50% and it answers
0.0103125 or 1%

So my chances are 1% to make a +7 shirt! I will try to explain what that means in the terms of money, sry i gtg for now, i will edit the post later...


Edit:

So to finish this off, first we have those 2 calculations:

Success Rate ChildofHeaven__ Juji
+3 → +4.......... 50%__________ 50%
+4 → +5.......... 33%__________ 58%
+5 → +6.......... 25%__________ 50%
+6 → +7.......... 25%__________ 44%
+7 → +8........... 10% ...
+8 → +9 ..........10% ...
+9 → +10.......... 1% ...To evaluate the average cost to make a +7 shirt, i take in mind the 1st rates, which give a 1% chance. So how many scrolls will i need?

I will make 100 attempts to have 1 shirt, i will fail 50 times for +4, that is 50x4 scrolls = 200 scrolls. I will make the other 50 +4 shirts, so that's another 50x4 scrolls = 200 scrolls

I will then fail 67% to +5, that is 34 shirts (out of 50), so 34 more scrolls, and i will make 16 +5 shirts so that is another 16 scrolls.

I will then fail 75% for +6, that is 12 shirts (out of 16), so 12 more scrols, and i will make 4 +6 shirts so that is another 4 scrolls.

I will then fail 75% for +7, that is 3 shirts (out of 4), so 3 more scrols, and i will make 1 +7 shirt so that is another 1 scroll.

So i will need an average of 200+200+34+16+12+4+3+1= 470 scrolls

That is 47.000 NCoins +1200 NCoins for the shirt, a total of 48200 NCoins for a +7 shirt! (or 600usd)

For the advertised +10 shirt,.... hmmm, does the helocopter burn diesel fuel?

So... trying for a +7 shirt is the worst than playing the lottery... this is not a news worthy item. Any player who honestly believed the +7 shirts would be popping up all over the servers is absolutely living in a fantasy world (pun intended) and Santa has a list of who's naughty and who's nice (if I could only get a hold of that naughty list), let's mover on already.

Did you know this is common practice? Hype up the public on the possibility of getting something really cool or expensive for just a little bit of money or time, when the reality is there isn't a snowballs chance in hell of achieving the prize... the McDs famous Monopoly game comes to mind or Publishers Clearing House contest is another!

GG NCSoft... no biggie, no crying, more XPing already!

... i want u to compare that with the original stats!

Like Dracha said, trying for a highly enchanted Shirt is like playing the lottery. Every few weeks somebody wins the jackpot, so it is technically absolutely possible to become a millionaire in this way, but it would be unwise to bet all your money on the chance that it will happen to you too. A normal person would buy a Shirt and a box of Enchantment Scrolls and having a go. If it works out, fine, if not, move on. But obviously there are people trying to force their luck, doubling the expected number of scrolls and thinking that now they must get a +7 Shirt. That is a fatal error which has ruined many a good man in Dracha's home town.

In Germany and China people learn about statistics in their last year of Junior College/高中. I am not familiar with the American educational system, but I guess it will be more or less the same. That means people under 18 can not know what trying to enchant an Elemental Shirt means for them in terms of money. Since you can not win any money (you are basically paying for the joy of seeing your pixels go poof), this is technically not gambling, so NCsoft is on the safe side. Nevertheless the frustration associated with the Elemental Shirts leads to players getting disenchanted with the game and NCsoft as a company, i.e. in the long run a loss of revenue. Cryo said in the livestream interview (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfY4kl8-y40&list=UU-GTQ8QGSKQwGxmAzF5jaLw&index=1&feature=plpp_video) that they had looked into how those things worked in other L2 territories before they put the Power Shirts in the Galleria in March. I don't know what possessed him to repeat the same mistake here. You will find the sequence of events here:
http://boards.rochand.com/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=857&start=10#p12976

As to comparing Juji's numbers with those of ChildOfHeaven, you can only really do this for the +3 -> +4 step. ChildOfHeaven started at each enchantment step with 100 Shirts, whereas Juji had much less tries at the higher steps. But as BlizH2O (http://boards.lineage2.com/showthread.php?t=244200#2) has pointed out on the previous page, 60% of the scrolls were used to get to +3, so it's the lower enchantment steps which make the whole undertaking costly. Therefore Juji's 3 trial experiment is in fact quite representative :)

Both the +7 in one go of hivitro (http://boards.lineage2.com/showthread.php?t=244200#20) and the -400$ shirt +1 of Ifazass (http://boards.lineage2.com/showthread.php?t=244200&page=2#23) are aberrations, which are nevertheless part of the whole picture. I knew that this would happen, therefore I asked Juji on August 11 (http://boards.lineage2.com/showthread.php?t=243897&page=12) to do a test like with the Seed Talisman. Compare post #1 and post #6 on this page:
http://boards.lineage2.com/showthread.php?t=241561
They both say the same, but in the Follow-Up Test everybody can see at a glance what he or she will have to go through while trying to level up a Seed Talisman. And when Juji did his Shirt test on August 14, this pretty much stopped the complaints about "200 dollars down the drain". People seem to have gotten the message :)

So i edited my previous post to get done with maths. The conclusion for this subject is not if the shirts are worth their price. It's wheather we are being told the truth about them. There are some terms used in maths, such as "creative accounting" and "coocking numbers". For example, it looks really better to say, "success rate from +3 to +4 50%,... etc" than to say 1% for +7. My numbers might also be wrong, i challenge anyone to question them :)

The chance to get a +7 shirt is irrelevant since the only reason to go to +7 is for the reduction in reflect damage, and that is broken.

So not only is NC soft selling you something that will cost between $50 and $300 to acquire, but also it won't work when you get it.

This shirt is a TOTAL rip off. I want my money back. I got lucky, but I still got screwed because I spent $100 for something that doesn't work as advertised.

Assuming the odds of overenchanting these shirts are consistent with overenchanting in general in this game - non altered chance of OE success is 33% each time you use a scroll. So, the actual odds of going to +7 are 1/3^4 or 1/81 or a .01 (1%) chance. And it won't work when you get it, anyway.
The odds for +8 are 0.4% and for +9 0.1%, oh, and for +10 .04% (lawl)

Juji and Child ran tests that are statistically supportive of the assumed enchant rates, given the small sample sizes.
You people need more time in math class and less time in l2. This is basic combinatorics which even in America is taught during high school ;)

The chance to get a +7 shirt is irrelevant since the only reason to go to +7 is for the reduction in reflect damage, and that is broken.

So not only is NC soft selling you something that will cost between $50 and $300 to acquire, but also it won't work when you get it.

This shirt is a TOTAL rip off. I want my money back. I got lucky, but I still got screwed because I spent $100 for something that doesn't work as advertised.

Assuming the odds of overenchanting these shirts are consistent with overenchanting in general in this game - non altered chance of OE success is 33% each time you use a scroll. So, the actual odds of going to +7 are 1/3^4 or 1/81 or a .01 (1%) chance. And it won't work when you get it, anyway.
The odds for +8 are 0.4% and for +9 0.1%, oh, and for +10 .04% (lawl)

Juji and Child ran tests that are statistically supportive of the assumed enchant rates, given the small sample sizes.
You people need more time in math class and less time in l2. This is basic combinatorics which even in America is taught during high school ;)

totaly agreed

Well destruction enchant scrols would be fine ! so give us destruction shirt scrols!